Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–3
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–4
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	10–5
4	George Washington University	Colonials	8–7
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–6
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7–7
7	Harvard University	Crimson	6–8
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	4–10
9	Cornell University	Big Red	3–11
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 72 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.577 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.09 school +0.15	Peter Hogan / Kelly Milliken 3.37 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.55 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.01 9–3 Parker Loftus / Kent Mathes 3.01 3–0	51%	12–3 (80%)	+4.3
2	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.27 school +0.58	Will La Dow / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.71 Romain Screve / Sarah Placek 3.54 Jack Parkin / Elena Vandenberg 3.39 10–4 William Marshall / Cassie Obel 3.27 1–0	80%	11–4 (73%)	−0.9
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	10.07 school +0.45	Bradley Adam / Kate Bjerregaard 3.38 Dane Byerly / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.19 Edmund Cooper / Kaisey Mccallion 3.02	50%	10–5 (67%)	+2.5
4	George Washington University Colonials	7	9.93 school +0.18	Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.01 Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.16 Kai Friesecke / Tanner Chapko 3.57 4–5 Kai Friesecke / Isabel Strachan 3.54 4–2	47%	8–7 (53%)	+1.0
5	College of Charleston Cougars	2	10.95 school +0.43	Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.16 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.57 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.78	78%	8–6 (57%)	−3.0
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	3	9.90 school −0.11, home +0.39	Jack Elkin / Stephen Guglielmo 3.37 James Jacob / Emily Harrison 2.69 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.63 6–6 Dreugh Phillips / Carter Little 3.00 1–1	55%	7–7 (50%)	−0.7
7	Harvard University Crimson	4	9.85 school −0.05	Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.68 Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 3.10 4–8 Eli Burnes / Kevin Coakley 3.13 5–5 Taylor Ladd / Kirstin Anderson 3.00 3–3	54%	6–8 (43%)	−1.6
8	Tufts University Jumbos	8	8.83 school +0.08	Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 2.91 3–9 Jack Bitney / Lara Dienemann 2.88 3–7 Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.85 3–7 Jackson Mccoy / Maria Brush 3.08 2–4 Christopher Keller / Maria Brush 2.82 1–2 Jackson Mccoy / Lara Dienemann 3.11 0–1	32%	4–10 (29%)	−0.5
9	Cornell University Big Red	9	8.67 school +0.24	Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.08 Thomas Balk / Adeline Sutton 2.69 Luke Andersen / Kimberly Wong 2.62	27%	3–11 (21%)	−0.8
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	10	8.59 school −0.33	Charles Lomax / Vincent Storino 3.47 Ryan Hunter / Kieran Cullen 2.61 Carrson Pearce / Luke Welker 2.77	25%	3–11 (21%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	U. S. Naval Academy	10.09	11.63	12–3	7.7	+1.54	4.5	1%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.07	10.87	10–5	7.5	+0.81	1.4	13%
4	George Washington University	9.93	10.25	8–7	7.0	+0.32	0.2	38%
8	Tufts University	8.83	8.65	4–10	4.5	−0.18	0.1	72%
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8.59	8.39	3–11	3.5	−0.21	0.1	73%
6	Old Dominion University	9.90	9.67	7–7	7.7	−0.23	0.1	75%
9	Cornell University	8.67	8.33	3–11	3.8	−0.34	0.2	79%
2	Stanford University	11.27	10.91	11–4	11.9	−0.36	0.3	83%
7	Harvard University	9.85	9.29	6–8	7.6	−0.56	0.6	89%
5	College of Charleston	10.95	9.80	8–6	11.0	−1.14	2.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.55	5.08	12–3	7.7	+1.54	4.5	1%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	3.01	4.47	9–3	5.3	+1.47	3.8	2%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.38	4.19	10–5	7.5	+0.81	1.4	13%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.02	3.83	10–5	7.5	+0.81	1.4	13%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.16	3.48	8–7	7.0	+0.32	0.2	38%
Taylor Ladd	Harvard University	3.00	3.10	3–3	2.9	+0.11	0.0	63%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	2.85	2.77	4–9	4.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.63	3.45	6–6	6.4	−0.18	0.1	73%
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.47	3.27	3–11	3.5	−0.21	0.1	73%
Carrson Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.77	2.56	3–11	3.5	−0.21	0.1	73%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.08	2.75	3–11	3.8	−0.34	0.2	79%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.13	2.52	5–5	6.2	−0.60	0.5	89%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	3.10	2.25	4–8	6.0	−0.86	1.2	95%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.57	2.42	8–6	11.0	−1.14	2.6	99%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.78	2.63	8–6	11.0	−1.14	2.6	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	72%
1	2	Harvard University	Tufts University	76%
1	3	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
1	4	Stanford University	Cornell University	93%
1	5	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	George Washington University	20%	upset
1	6	College of Charleston	Tufts University	90%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	52%
1	8	Harvard University	Cornell University	77%
1	9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	82%
1	10	Stanford University	George Washington University	79%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	80%
1	12	College of Charleston	Cornell University	91%
1	13	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	81%
1	14	Stanford University	Harvard University	80%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	53%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	81%
1	17	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	59%
1	18	Stanford University	College of Charleston	58%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	52%
1	20	George Washington University	Harvard University	55%
1	21	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	52%
1	22	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	75%
1	24	College of Charleston	Harvard University	77%
1	25	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	49%	upset
1	26	Stanford University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	80%
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Harvard University	58%
1	29	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	61%
1	30	George Washington University	College of Charleston	26%	upset
1	31	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	32	Harvard University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	77%
1	33	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	79%
1	34	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	30%	upset
1	35	George Washington University	Tufts University	72%
1	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	54%
1	37	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	79%
1	38	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
1	39	Cornell University	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	40	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	45%	upset
1	41	Old Dominion University	Harvard University	52%
1	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	29%	upset
1	43	Stanford University	Tufts University	91%
1	44	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	82%
1	45	George Washington University	Cornell University	78%
4	46	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
4	47	George Washington University	Stanford University	21%	upset
4	50	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	47%	upset
4	51	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	23%	upset
4	54	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	55%
4	55	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
4	67	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	55%
4	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	22%	upset
4	69	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
4	70	Stanford University	George Washington University	80%
4	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	53%
4	72	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	23%	upset
6	48	Harvard University	Cornell University	78%
6	49	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	39%	upset
6	52	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	College of Charleston	9%	upset
6	53	Old Dominion University	Harvard University	51%
6	56	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	51%
6	57	College of Charleston	Tufts University	90%
6	58	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	80%
6	59	Tufts University	Harvard University	23%	upset
6	60	College of Charleston	Cornell University	91%
6	61	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Tufts University	42%	upset
6	62	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	79%
6	63	Harvard University	College of Charleston	23%	upset
6	64	Tufts University	Cornell University	51%
6	65	Harvard University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	77%
6	66	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	72%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Seahawks	Colonials	Cougars	Monarchs	Crimson	Jumbos	Red	Mariners
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	6–3	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Seahawks	Colonials
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–1	✕	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–4	L	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–3	W	W	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–4	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Monarchs	Crimson	Jumbos	Red	Mariners
College of Charleston Cougars	3–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Cornell University Big Red	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–3	W	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
2	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
5	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
6	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
8	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
9	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
11	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
12	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
13	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
19	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
20	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
21	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
23	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
25	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
27	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
28	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
29	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
30	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
32	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
33	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
34	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
35	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
37	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
38	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
39	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
40	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
41	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
44	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
45	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
47	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
50	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
51	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
54	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
67	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
68	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
69	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
70	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
72	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
48	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
49	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
52	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
53	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
56	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
58	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
59	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
61	Mariners	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
62	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
63	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
64	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
65	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
66	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Emma Remis '20 Kent Mathes '20 Kelly Milliken '21
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Romain Screve '21 Will La Dow '18 William Marshall '19	Elena Vandenberg '18 Sarah Placek '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Cassie Obel '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Dane Byerly '20 Edmund Cooper '17	Kate Bjerregaard '19 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Tanner Chapko '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Carter Little '18 Stephen Guglielmo '19 Emily Harrison '21
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18 Taylor Ladd '18	Kevin Coakley '18 Catherine Tang '19 Christine Gosioco '19 Kirstin Anderson '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Christopher Keller '19 Jack Bitney '19 Jackson Mccoy '19	Ian Morgan '19 Michelle Chisdak '18 Maria Brush '21 Lara Dienemann '18
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Luke Andersen '18 Thomas Balk '18	Diana Otis '19 Kimberly Wong '19 Adeline Sutton '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Carrson Pearce '21 Charles Lomax '18 Ryan Hunter '21	Luke Welker '21 Vincent Storino '18 Kieran Cullen '21

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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