New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy

HostTufts
Date04/08/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	18–5
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	15–8
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	15–8
4	Boston College	Eagles	14–9
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	14–9
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–10
7	Boston University	Terriers	6–12
8	Harvard University	Crimson	5–13
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–8
10	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–9
11	Connecticut College	Camels	2–9
12	Brown University	Bears	2–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,652 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 76 of 109 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.602 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.22 ± 0.21: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 22% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.67 school +0.26	Ian Barrows / Graceann Nicolosi 4.41 Nicholas Baird / Natalya Doris 4.30 16–4 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.67 16–4 Nicholas Baird / Christopher Champa 4.16 2–1 Malcolm Lamphere / Natalya Doris 3.78 2–1	84%	18–5 (78%)	−1.3
2	Tufts University Jumbos	4	11.23 school +0.06, home +0.37	Alexander Tong / Aaron Klein 3.50 12–8 Scott Barbano / Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 3.65 11–8 John Rolander / Ian Morgan 3.58 9–6 John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.68 6–2 Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.58 4–0 Alexander Tong / Lara Dienemann 3.51 3–0	55%	15–8 (65%)	+2.3
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7	10.46 school −0.22	Cutter O'Connell / Stephen Duncan 3.21 Ty Ingram / Jordan Ladd 3.81 Alexander Stewart / Trevor Long 3.57 7–7 Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.69 8–1	37%	15–8 (65%)	+6.5
4	Boston College Eagles	2	12.01 school +0.20	Harry Koeppel / Tara Ferraris 3.79 13–8 Erika Reineke / Scott Rasmussen 4.04 13–8 Charles Sinks / Henry Dumke 3.90 9–6 Charles Sinks / Peter Lynn 3.87 4–2 Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 3.97 1–1 Harry Koeppel / Emma Perry 3.89 1–1 Erika Reineke / Tara Ferraris 4.11 1–1	72%	14–9 (61%)	−2.6
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	11.70 school +0.12	Charles Lalumiere / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.98 Robert Floyd / Nathaniel Greason 3.86 12–8 Christopher Williford / Sophia Diserio 3.67 12–8 Robert Floyd / Madeleine Cooney 4.01 2–1 Christopher Williford / Sophie Kerr 3.65 1–1 Christopher Williford / Nathaniel Greason 3.63 1–0	66%	14–9 (61%)	−1.1
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	10.79 school +0.09	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.59 Stewart Draheim / Riley Eger 3.44 Mackenzie Bryan / Michael Mcbrien 3.64 11–10 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.48 2–0	43%	13–10 (57%)	+3.0
7	Boston University Terriers	12	9.76 school −0.27	Reed Lorimer / Hannah Davis 2.63 2–9 Ravi Parent / Alex Moreno 3.70 6–4 Ravi Parent / Josh Dochoda 3.69 0–8 Hannah Polster / Alex Moreno 3.57 0–8 Hannah Polster / Reed Lorimer 3.56 3–2 Robby Gearon / Hannah Davis 3.06 1–2 Robby Gearon / Caroline Salas 2.99 2–1 Josh Dochoda / Charles Honke 3.52 2–0 Hannah Polster / Charles Honke 3.54 1–1 Robby Gearon / Reed Lorimer 3.09 1–1	27%	6–12 (33%)	+1.1
8	Harvard University Crimson	11	10.09 school −0.17	Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.79 Taylor Ladd / Kevin Coakley 3.12 Nick Digiovanni / Julia Lord 3.29	29%	5–13 (28%)	−0.3
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	10.25 school −0.35	Mack Fox / Maddie Ekin 3.04 Nikole Barnes / August Sturm 4.08 3–5 Dana Rohde / Austin Lettengarver 3.48 3–5 Nikole Barnes / Austin Lettengarver 4.01 0–2 Dana Rohde / Anna Morin 3.48 0–2 Nikole Barnes / Liam Ballantyne 4.01 0–1 Dana Rohde / August Sturm 3.54 0–1	37%	3–8 (27%)	−1.1
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	10.59 school +0.25	Jack Mcguire / Hunter Moeller 3.62 Matthew Kaplan / Mary Paz 3.69 2–8 Matthew Lyons / Louisa Lindgren 2.99 2–4 Christian Filter / Louisa Lindgren 3.03 0–4 Matthew Lyons / Chester Jacobs 2.92 0–1 Matthew Kaplan / Dana Bloch 3.78 0–1	45%	2–9 (18%)	−3.0
11	Connecticut College Camels	9	10.23 school +0.09	Carter Pemberton / Albert Rodiger 3.63 Hugh Macgillivray / Erin Smith 3.68 1–7 Walter Florio / Austin Smith 2.78 1–3 Ragna Agerup / Austin Smith 2.78 1–2 Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.69 1–2 Walter Florio / Cooper Nefsky 2.85 0–2 Ragna Agerup / Cooper Nefsky 2.84 0–2	37%	2–9 (18%)	−2.0
12	Brown University Bears	10	9.94 school +0.27	Patrick Shanahan / Olivia Lord 3.73 2–7 Sam Alexander / Davis Tantillo 2.76 2–4 Quinn Andersen / Marina Cano 3.06 1–5 Sam Alexander / Henry Sharpe 3.03 0–3 Quinn Andersen / Davis Tantillo 2.86 0–3 Patrick Shanahan / Emily Ito 3.63 0–2 Quinn Andersen / Rachel Gutman 3.11 1–0 Sam Alexander / Olivia Lord 3.12 0–1 Sam Alexander / Rachel Gutman 3.10 0–1 Franco Bilik / Henry Sharpe 3.05 0–1	33%	2–9 (18%)	−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.46	11.88	15–8	8.5	+1.42	6.6	<1%
6	Roger Williams University	10.79	11.42	13–10	10.0	+0.64	1.4	12%
2	Tufts University	11.23	11.76	15–8	12.7	+0.52	0.9	20%
7	Boston University	9.76	10.13	6–12	4.9	+0.37	0.3	35%
8	Harvard University	10.09	10.00	5–13	5.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
5	Dartmouth College	11.70	11.45	14–9	15.1	−0.25	0.2	78%
1	Yale University	12.67	12.26	18–5	19.3	−0.42	0.4	86%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.25	9.75	3–8	4.1	−0.50	0.4	85%
4	Boston College	12.01	11.39	14–9	16.6	−0.62	1.2	94%
12	Brown University	9.94	9.04	2–9	3.6	−0.90	1.0	94%
11	Connecticut College	10.23	9.17	2–9	4.1	−1.05	1.5	96%
10	Bowdoin College	10.59	9.12	2–9	5.0	−1.47	3.0	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.57	4.99	15–8	8.5	+1.42	6.6	<1%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.81	5.23	15–8	8.5	+1.42	6.6	<1%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.59	4.23	13–10	10.0	+0.64	1.4	12%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.65	4.17	15–8	12.7	+0.52	0.9	20%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.58	4.11	15–8	12.7	+0.52	0.9	20%
Alexander Tong	Tufts University	3.50	4.03	15–8	12.7	+0.52	0.9	20%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.70	4.07	6–12	4.9	+0.37	0.3	35%
Taylor Ladd	Harvard University	3.12	3.04	5–13	5.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	3.29	3.21	5–13	5.3	−0.08	0.0	65%
Hannah Polster	Boston University	3.57	3.37	4–11	4.5	−0.20	0.1	73%
Robert Floyd	Dartmouth College	3.86	3.61	14–9	15.1	−0.25	0.2	78%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.98	3.73	14–9	15.1	−0.25	0.2	78%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.30	3.89	18–5	19.3	−0.42	0.4	86%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.41	3.99	18–5	19.3	−0.42	0.4	86%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	4.08	3.58	3–8	4.1	−0.50	0.4	85%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.79	3.16	14–9	16.6	−0.62	1.2	94%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.04	3.42	14–9	16.6	−0.62	1.2	94%
Matthew Lyons	Bowdoin College	2.99	2.04	2–5	3.4	−0.95	1.0	94%
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.78	1.37	1–5	2.6	−1.41	1.5	97%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.62	2.15	2–9	5.0	−1.47	3.0	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	15%	upset
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	53%
1	3	Brown University	Roger Williams University	28%	upset
1	4	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	65%
1	5	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	47%	upset
1	6	Boston College	Yale University	32%	upset
1	7	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	80%
1	8	Harvard University	Brown University	55%
1	9	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	54%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Boston University	64%
1	11	Yale University	Tufts University	82%
1	12	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
1	13	Brown University	Connecticut College	44%	upset
1	14	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	75%
1	15	Boston University	Harvard University	61%
1	16	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
1	17	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
1	18	Boston College	Tufts University	68%
1	19	Bowdoin College	Brown University	66%
1	20	Connecticut College	Boston University	53%
1	21	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%
1	22	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	45%	upset
1	23	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Boston College	23%	upset
1	25	Boston University	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
1	26	Yale University	Brown University	94%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	51%
1	28	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
1	29	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	67%
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	17%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Boston University	95%
1	32	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	42%	upset
1	33	Tufts University	Brown University	78%
1	34	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	64%
1	35	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	78%
1	36	Boston College	Harvard University	87%
1	37	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
1	38	Tufts University	Boston University	83%
1	39	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	57%
1	40	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	64%
1	41	Harvard University	Connecticut College	47%	upset
1	42	Dartmouth College	Boston College	42%	upset
1	43	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	44	Yale University	Roger Williams University	87%
1	45	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	71%
1	46	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	37%	upset
1	47	Dartmouth College	Brown University	85%
1	48	Boston College	Connecticut College	85%
1	49	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	38%	upset
1	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	58%
1	51	Yale University	Harvard University	93%
1	52	Dartmouth College	Boston University	89%
1	53	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	40%	upset
1	54	Boston College	Brown University	88%
1	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	56	Tufts University	Harvard University	75%
1	57	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
1	58	Yale University	Connecticut College	92%
1	59	Boston University	Brown University	27%	upset
1	60	Boston College	Bowdoin College	80%
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	61%
1	62	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	71%
1	63	Tufts University	Connecticut College	73%
1	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	56%
1	65	Yale University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	66	Boston College	Boston University	96%
6	95	Roger Williams University	Boston College	23%	upset
6	96	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	78%
6	97	Tufts University	Yale University	19%	upset
6	98	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	17%	upset
6	99	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	63%
6	100	Yale University	Dartmouth College	72%
6	101	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
6	102	Boston College	Dartmouth College	58%
6	103	Yale University	Roger Williams University	87%
6	104	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	39%	upset
6	105	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
6	106	Boston College	Yale University	34%	upset
6	107	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	71%
6	108	Tufts University	Boston College	32%	upset
6	109	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
8	67	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	38%	upset
8	68	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	22%	upset
8	69	Boston College	Harvard University	87%
8	70	Yale University	Boston University	95%
8	71	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	62%
8	72	Boston College	Roger Williams University	77%
8	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	71%
8	74	Yale University	Harvard University	93%
8	75	Boston College	Dartmouth College	58%
8	76	Tufts University	Boston University	83%
8	77	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	67%
8	78	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	9%	upset
8	79	Boston University	Boston College	4%	upset
8	80	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	84%
8	81	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	31%	upset
8	82	Yale University	Roger Williams University	87%
8	83	Boston University	Harvard University	61%
8	84	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	17%	upset
8	85	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
8	86	Yale University	Tufts University	81%
8	87	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	60%
8	88	Roger Williams University	Boston University	63%
8	89	Boston College	Tufts University	68%
8	90	Dartmouth College	Yale University	28%	upset
8	91	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
8	92	Tufts University	Harvard University	75%
8	93	Dartmouth College	Boston University	89%
8	94	Yale University	Boston College	66%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Engineers	Eagles	Green	Hawks	Terriers	Crimson	Bears	Bears	Camels	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–3	W	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
Boston University Terriers	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–9	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Connecticut College Camels	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L
Brown University Bears	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Engineers	Eagles	Green	Hawks
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	2–3	W	L	L	✕	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Engineers	Eagles	Green	Hawks	Terriers	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	✕	L	L	L	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–1	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	L	W	W	L	W	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
2	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
3	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
4	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
5	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
6	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
7	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
8	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
10	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
12	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
14	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
15	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
18	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
19	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
20	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6 DSQ
22	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
23	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
25	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
26	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
27	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
28	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
30	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
32	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
33	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
35	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
38	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
40	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
41	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
42	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
44	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
45	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
46	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
47	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
49	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
50	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
51	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
52	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
53	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
54	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
55	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
56	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
57	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
59	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
60	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
61	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
62	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
64	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
66	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
95	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
96	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
97	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
98	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
99	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
100	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
101	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
102	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
103	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
104	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
105	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
106	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
107	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
108	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
67	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
68	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
69	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
71	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
72	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
73	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
75	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
76	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
77	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
78	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
79	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
80	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
81	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
82	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
83	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
84	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
85	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
86	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
87	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
88	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
89	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
90	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
91	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
92	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
93	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
94	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Graceann Nicolosi '20 Natalya Doris '17 Clara Robertson '17 Christopher Champa '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexander Tong '17 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Aaron Klein '18 Lara Dienemann '18 Ian Morgan '19 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 Ty Ingram '18	Trevor Long '19 Paige Omura '17 Stephen Duncan '20 Jordan Ladd '17
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Erika Reineke '17 Harry Koeppel '17	Henry Dumke '17 Peter Lynn '19 Allison Ferraris '17 Scott Rasmussen '20 Tara Ferraris '19 Emma Perry '19
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Christopher Williford '19 Robert Floyd '17	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Sophie Kerr '17 Sophia Diserio '18 Nathaniel Greason '17 Madeleine Cooney '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18 Riley Eger '17
Boston University	Terriers	Hannah Polster '17 Josh Dochoda '20 Ravi Parent '18 Reed Lorimer '18 Robby Gearon '19	Alex Moreno '19 Reed Lorimer '18 Charles Honke '20 Josh Dochoda '20 Hannah Davis '19 Caroline Salas '18
Harvard University	Crimson	Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18 Taylor Ladd '18	Julia Lord '17 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17 Kevin Coakley '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Dana Rohde '18 Mack Fox '20 Nikole Barnes '17	Austin Lettengarver '19 Anna Morin '19 August Sturm '19 Maddie Ekin '20 Liam Ballantyne '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Jack Mcguire '17 Matthew Kaplan '19 Matthew Lyons '17	Louisa Lindgren '19 Hunter Moeller '17 Mary Paz '17 Dana Bloch '17 Chester Jacobs '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Ragna Agerup '20 Walter Florio '18	Albert Rodiger '18 Erin Smith '19 Eliza Garry '17 Austin Smith '20 Cooper Nefsky '17
Brown University	Bears	Franco Bilik '18 Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Henry Sharpe '17 Olivia Lord '17 Emily Ito '19 Marina Cano '17 Rachel Gutman '17 Davis Tantillo '19

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1004.6 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.4 kn

avg · max 16.0 kn

Gusts to 33.0 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1004.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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