Yale University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 2.15 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.099 rating points from 58 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88 (fleet 2.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–15 (53%) as crew 26–8 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 4 | 17–15 | 2–1 |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | — | 24–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (64 matches) the record is 42–22 against 47.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 4.16 | 3.91 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 2.41 | 5–5 | 4.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.22 | 1.69 | 7–4 | 8.2 | −0.53 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.27 | 1.16 | 5–6 | 7.3 | −1.11 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 4.60 | 3.69 | 10–4 | 12.0 | −0.92 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 4.45 | 4.33 | 13–2 | 13.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B, C | 11 | 8.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.0 | 4.11 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 6.6 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 23 | 78% | — |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Crew | B | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 3.6 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.3 | 2.92 |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 2.8 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B, C | 4 | 7.8 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 14.0 | 1.62 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 16.1 | 0.59 |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Crew | A | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | A | 3 | 9.0 | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 12.0 | 2.23 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 1.94 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 2.96 |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A | 11 | 8.3 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.9 | 2.32 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.5 | 1.87 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 7.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
