Tufts University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–28 (51%) as crew 15–10 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 19–26 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 4 | 10–2 | 14–10 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 1–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (77 matches) the record is 42–35 against 43.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.98 | 2.63 | 2–9 | 2.6 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 2.52 | 5–10 | 6.2 | −0.56 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.08 | 2.31 | 12–5 | 14.2 | −0.78 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.70 | 4.25 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.65 | 3.97 | 11–8 | 9.8 | +0.32 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 3.34 | 10–2 | 9.0 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 37% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Florian Eenkema Van Dijk |  Darien High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
