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Southern Series 5

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 83
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 89
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 89
4 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 136
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 140
6 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 186
7 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 189
8 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 213
9 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 251
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears A 2 3 1 3 1 8 2 7 27 Rachel Foster '20
Davis Tantillo '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 6 1 14 4 4 1 3 2 35 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19
Sarah Bunney '19
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels B 1 2 12 5 3 4 1 8 36 Charlotte List '18 [1-2, 5-7]
Alexandra Maurillo '18 [3-4, 8]
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Paige Dunlevy '20 [3-4, 8]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels A 4 11 4 2 9 12 10 1 53 Ragna Agerup '20
Cecilia Moreira '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 3 4 11 11 6 5 9 5 54 James Beatty '17
Caroline Ambros '17
Brown University Brown University Bears B 8 5 7 8 8 11 5 4 56 Henry Sharpe '17
Julia Kim '18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 12 12 5 6 10 3 6 3 57 Ryan Gershuny '18
Jenna Hannafin '20
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 14 6 2 12 7 6 7 6 60 Peter Sterflinger '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 5 13 9 1 2 7 11 15 63 Jennifer Killian '19
Madeline Lark '20
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 10 14 8 10 14 2 8 10 76 Thomas Pluchino '18
Hans Bengston '20
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 7 9 3 9 11 16 13 9 77 Charles Skoda '17
Claire Rossi De Leon '19
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 11 10 6 7 13 15 4 11 77 Sean Beaulieu '18
Jennifer Ryan '19
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 9 7 13 14 5 13 14 12 87 Markus Suorsa '17
Alexa Ripple '20
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 13 17 10 13 12 9 12 13 99 Nathaniel Barton '18
Catherine Streich '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 16 8 17 16 16 10 15 14 112 Patrick Buehler '18
Elizabeth Tokarz '17
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 15 16 15 15 17 14 17 17 126 Nicholas Orsoni-Wiemer '19
Elliott Nagelmackers '19
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 17 15 16 17 15 17 16 16 129 River Iannaccone '19
Autumn Becker '20
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 152 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears11112222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels22223333
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats33334444
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds44445555
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats77778888
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks55556666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66667777
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals88889999
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs999910101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1010101011111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels1111111112121212
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats1212121213131313
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds1313131314141414
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1616161617171717
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1414141415151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1515151516161616
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1717171718181818
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs181818181111

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From SE (134°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1019.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yale: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.35 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →