Salve Regina University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 2.76) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–83 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–33 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–16 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 6–26 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (97 matches) the record is 14–83 against 21.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.30 | 2.10 | 1–14 | 1.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.42 | -0.53 | 1–19 | 6.1 | −2.96 | 8.9 | >99% |
| 2017-02-25 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 1.83 | 4–16 | 5.0 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 2.13 | 2.29 | 2–14 | 1.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 1.60 | 4–12 | 5.6 | −0.73 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 2.23 | 2.95 | 2–8 | 1.3 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.0 | 2.56 |
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 2.87 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.8 | 2.33 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.8 | 2.61 |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 5% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 3.26 |
| Central 3 at URI | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 0.96 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.0 | 3.03 |
| SHU TROPHY | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.8 | 3.64 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | 2.61 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 1.09 |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 2.91 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 3.28 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.6 | 2.39 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.3 | 1.55 |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.7 | 2.82 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 25 | 16% | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 1.55 |
| Central 3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.46 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | -0.03 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 2.69 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 2.32 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.1 | 2.00 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.2 | 1.26 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.29 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 14.9 | 2.42 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.9 | 3.35 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.5 | 1.96 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.4 | 2.46 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.2 | 2.15 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 2.04 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.6 | 1.93 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.5 | 2.00 |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 3.36 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 2.11 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 9.7 | 2.84 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.8 | 1.20 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 14.4 | 1.74 |
| Harman cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.8 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.9 | 2.42 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 2.64 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | 2.47 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 15.7 | 0.98 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 2.52 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 3.44 |
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 2.16 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.4 | 1.94 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 1.70 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 4.05 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.0 | 2.59 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.8 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 2.11 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.9 | — |
| PC Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.5 | 2.36 |
| Olympians Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 15 | 4.1 | — |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 13.4 | 1.41 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.8 | 1.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
