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BU Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 12–3
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 12–3
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 8–7
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7–8
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5–10
6 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.454 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.09 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Roger Williams University
Hawks		27.82
school +0.24		Preston Duclos / Kylie Freitas 2.48
Peter Neal / Rachel Holick 2.54
Kelsey Shakin / Kristi Dolan 2.48		67%12–3 (80%)+1.9
2Boston University
Terriers		19.07
school −0.15, home +0.39		Casey Cabot / Skye Shepherd 2.56 7–2
Sam Morrell / Erica Brown 3.25 7–2
Kyle Dochoda / Emily Walker 2.90 6–3
Josh Dochoda / Erica Brown 3.15 5–1
Alex Moreno / Skye Shepherd 2.81 5–1
Alex Moreno / Emily Walker 2.80 3–0
Josh Dochoda / Emily Walker 3.16 3–0		89%12–3 (80%)−1.3
3Harvard University
Crimson		46.99
school −0.05		Taylor Gavula / Emily Wang 2.49
Owen Schafer / Emily Malpass 1.82
Jackson Wagner / Gayatri Balasubramanian 2.55		48%8–7 (53%)+0.9
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		37.46
school +0.14		Stephen Duncan / Lynn Liu 2.58
Ivan Shestopalov / Fiona Mckellar 2.77
James Peraire-Bueno / Elizabeth Obermaier 1.90		59%7–8 (47%)−1.9
5Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		55.97
school +0.23		Rowan Byrne / Kelsey Slack
Louis Frumer / Isabelle Austin-Green 1.90
Claire Havig / Martinique Ogle		29%5–10 (33%)+0.6
6Salve Regina University
Seahawks		64.70
school −0.61		Sean Beaulieu / Grace Benzal 2.30
Grace Vincens / Jennifer Ryan 1.71 1–11
Joey Lark / Mary Grace Bean 0–9
Allison Deluca / Mary Grace Bean 1–5
Allison Deluca / Jennifer Ryan 0–3		8%1–14 (7%)−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Roger Williams University7.828.7412–310.1+0.921.217%
3Harvard University6.997.348–77.1+0.350.240%
5Bowdoin College5.976.275–104.4+0.300.145%
6Salve Regina University4.704.501–141.2−0.200.072%
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology7.466.717–88.9−0.751.094%
2Boston University9.078.3012–313.4−0.770.893%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Grace VincensSalve Regina University1.712.111–110.7+0.400.152%
Taylor GavulaHarvard University2.492.858–77.1+0.350.240%
Louis FrumerBowdoin College1.902.205–104.4+0.300.145%
Claire HavigBowdoin College1.762.065–104.4+0.300.145%
Allison DelucaSalve Regina University0.991.281–80.8+0.290.057%
Sean BeaulieuSalve Regina University2.302.101–141.2−0.200.072%
Alex MorenoBoston University2.812.528–18.2−0.290.082%
Ivan ShestopalovMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.772.027–88.9−0.751.094%
James Peraire-BuenoMassachusetts Institute of Technology1.901.147–88.9−0.751.094%
Joey LarkSalve Regina University1.36-1.640–90.9≤−3.001.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology36%upset
12Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College91%
13Boston UniversitySalve Regina University98%
14Harvard UniversityBowdoin College77%
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologySalve Regina University95%
16Boston UniversityRoger Williams University77%
17Bowdoin CollegeSalve Regina University83%
18Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University71%
19Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University16%upset
110Roger Williams UniversitySalve Regina University96%
111Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBowdoin College83%
112Boston UniversityHarvard University93%
113Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRoger Williams University41%upset
114Harvard UniversitySalve Regina University88%
115Boston UniversityBowdoin College96%
216Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology38%upset
217Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College87%
218Boston UniversitySalve Regina University98%
219Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology59%
220Boston UniversityHarvard University92%
221Bowdoin CollegeSalve Regina University83%
222Roger Williams UniversityBoston University24%upset
223Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBowdoin College81%
224Harvard UniversitySalve Regina University88%
225Boston UniversityBowdoin College95%
226Harvard UniversityRoger Williams University31%upset
227Massachusetts Institute of TechnologySalve Regina University95%
228Bowdoin CollegeHarvard University28%upset
229Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology84%
230Roger Williams UniversitySalve Regina University96%
331Roger Williams UniversityBoston University24%upset
332Harvard UniversitySalve Regina University88%
333Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBowdoin College80%
334Boston UniversitySalve Regina University98%
335Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology59%
336Bowdoin CollegeHarvard University28%upset
337Salve Regina UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology6%upset
338Boston UniversityHarvard University92%
339Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College84%
340Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology39%upset
341Roger Williams UniversitySalve Regina University96%
342Boston UniversityBowdoin College94%
343Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University68%
344Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology83%
345Bowdoin CollegeSalve Regina University84%

Round 1

TeamRec.HawksTerriersCrimsonEngineersBearsSeahawks
Roger Williams University Hawks3–2✕LWLWW
Boston University Terriers4–1W✕WLWW
Harvard University Crimson3–2LL✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–1WWL✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears1–4LLLL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HawksTerriersCrimsonEngineersBearsSeahawks
Roger Williams University Hawks4–1✕WLWWW
Boston University Terriers4–1L✕WWWW
Harvard University Crimson3–2WL✕WLW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–3LLL✕WW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–3LLWL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.HawksTerriersCrimsonEngineersBearsSeahawks
Roger Williams University Hawks5–0✕WWWWW
Boston University Terriers4–1L✕WWWW
Harvard University Crimson2–3LL✕WLW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–4LLL✕WL
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–3LLWL✕W
Salve Regina University Seahawks1–4LLLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
2 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
3 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
4 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-4-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-4-6
6 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
7 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
12 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
14 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
15 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
16 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
18 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
19 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
20 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
21 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-4-5
22 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
23 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
24 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-5 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-4-6
25 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
26 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
27 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
28 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-4-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-3-6
29 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
30 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-5-6
31 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
32 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 4-5-6
33 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
34 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
35 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
36 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
37 Salve Regina University Seahawks 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
38 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
39 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
40 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
41 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 3-5-6
42 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
43 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
44 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
45 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-4 def. Salve Regina University Seahawks 2-5-6

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 45°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From N (4°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1016.9 hPa Rain0.05 in Snow0.33 in

What this breeze does at Boston University — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston University in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled fleet-race days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →