Bowdoin College '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 50.62 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 18 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.85 (fleet 2.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–13 (43%) as crew 14–16 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 10–13 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 14–16 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 24–29 against 22.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.30 | 1.94 | 3–11 | 3.8 | −0.36 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2019-03-30 | Harpswell Sound team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 1.48 | 7–2 | 7.8 | −0.78 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | crew | 1.94 | 2.78 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | crew | 1.59 | 1.89 | 5–10 | 4.4 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.8 | -3.05 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.0 | 2.68 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.0 | 2.41 |
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 3.91 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.9 | 3.23 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.1 | 3.09 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.4 | 3.61 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 32% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.4 | 2.28 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 13.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 5.8 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.10 |
| Harpswell Sound team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.4 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 3.08 |
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 3.65 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 1.87 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.0 | 2.60 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.8 | 2.48 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 2.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.3 | -0.10 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 2.18 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.7 | 2.58 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.3 | 2.08 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Crew | B | 10 | 10.2 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 2.59 |
| Central | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | 1.45 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.7 | 0.02 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
