Bowdoin College '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 (fleet 2.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–23 (42%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 14–16 | 0–2 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 17–23 against 13.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 2.76 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | 2.20 | 5–10 | 4.4 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.34 | 1.70 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.6 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.2 | 2.54 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.3 | 3.35 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 2.14 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.3 | 1.77 |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 1.90 |
| Harman cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.9 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.4 | 1.38 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.1 | 1.36 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.3 | 0.83 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.7 | 2.56 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 3.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
