Bowdoin College '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.87 (fleet 2.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–16 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 14–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 14–16 against 10.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | 2.78 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.59 | 1.89 | 5–10 | 4.4 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | 1.78 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.3 | 2.96 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 2.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.2 | 2.05 |
| Invite at Harvard | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.4 | 0.19 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 1.53 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| Central | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 2.74 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Rowan Byrne |  St. Johns Prep |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
