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Dark of Night

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 4 9
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 10 14
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 3 17 20
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 12 9 21
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 14 9 23
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 12 15 27
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 18 9 27
8 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 24 5 29
9 Leopards Leopards Leopards 19 19 38
10 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 10 29 39
11 Corsairs Corsairs Corsairs 21 23 44
12 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 26 18 44
13 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 23 25 48
14 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 30 19 49
15 Falcons Falcons Falcons 29 33 62
16 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 34 29 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 1 2 3 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 [1]
Logan Russell '19 [2]
Sarah Bunney '19 [1]
Ashley Smith '19 [2]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 1 4 Bobby Mclaughlin '17 [1]
Alexander Tong '17 [2]
Alexander Tong '17 [1]
Bobby Mclaughlin '17 [2]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 5 Pierre Dupont '16
James Moody '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 5 5 10 George Williams '17
Bryan Davis '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 4 8 12 Aaron Klein '18 [1]
Ryan Epprecht '18 [2]
Julien Guiot '18 [1]
Lara Dienemann '18 [2]
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 6 12 Alexandra Swanson '16
Jessica O'Dell '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 10 4 14 Jackson Hamilton '19
John Hughes '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 7 11 18 Kurran Singh '19
Eleanor Grams '18
Leopards Leopards Leopards 9 10 19
Corsairs Corsairs Corsairs 8 13 21
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 11 12 23 Sarah De Silva '19
Nathalie Garcia '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 DNS 7 24 Zachary Vickerson '16
Danielle Stonely '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 DNS 9 26 Samuel Campbell '17
Hannah Callahan '16
Falcons Falcons Falcons 12 DNF 29
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 13 DNF 30 Julia Becker '19
Mae Harrington '19
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals DNS DNF 34
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 2 4 Amanda Sommi '16 [1]
Cameron Holley '19 [2]
Cameron Holley '19 [1]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 1 4 5 Solomon Tarlin '17
Simon Bertocci '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 3 6 9 Robert Rose '20
Anne Wieland '19
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 5 9 Nathan Housberg '19
Lauren Haller '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 6 3 9 John Wehner '18
Caitlin Cloonan '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 9 1 10 James Beatty '17
Caroline Ambros '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 8 7 15 Tyler Paige '18
Bubakar Bah '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 7 10 17 Ian Morgan '19
Taylor Hart '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 5 13 18 Hannah Polster '17
Margaret Swanson '16
Leopards Leopards Leopards 10 9 19
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 11 8 19 Kiley Burke '17
Sofia Drago '19
Corsairs Corsairs Corsairs 12 11 23
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 13 12 25 Claire Lockard '18
Rachel Guard '19
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 14 15 29 Shannon Nardi '16
Melissa Conway '16
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 15 14 29
Falcons Falcons Falcons DNF 16 33
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
FalconsFalcons Falcons1313
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 155
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 266
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1616
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1919
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints1414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 12424
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 388
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 477
CorsairsCorsairs Corsairs99
LeopardsLeopards Leopards1212
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals1818

Division B

Team1B2B
FalconsFalcons Falcons1313
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 155
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 266
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1616
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1919
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints1414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 12424
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 388
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 477
CorsairsCorsairs Corsairs99
LeopardsLeopards Leopards1212
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals1818

Conditions — 11/12/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SSE (147°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1010.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.22 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →