Tufts University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 17.37 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.071 rating points from 431 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 (fleet 1.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–8 (11%) as crew 43–63 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 4–6 |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 11–27 |
| Spring 2017 | 4 | — | 28–30 |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (115 matches) the record is 44–71 against 48.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 24 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 1.83 | 1.97 | 4–6 | 3.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | crew | 2.62 | -0.38 | 0–16 | 4.4 | ≤−3.00 | 7.2 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.50 | 4.76 | 9–4 | 3.2 | +2.26 | 9.5 | <1% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | crew | 2.56 | 2.39 | 2–7 | 2.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | crew | 2.64 | 3.20 | 12–3 | 10.5 | +0.55 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | crew | 2.72 | 1.10 | 2–8 | 5.1 | −1.62 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.46 | 2.08 | 8–13 | 9.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.51 | 1.30 | 6–6 | 8.6 | −1.21 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 0.93 | 0.39 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 12.9 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 9.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 6.1 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 11.8 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 9.9 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 14 | 10.9 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.5 | — |
| Women's Showcase Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 10.2 | — |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 14.5 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 10.0 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 9.9 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | B | 6 | 8.5 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 7.6 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 8.3 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 12.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.5 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 11.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 6.6 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 11.6 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 11.5 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 10.8 | — |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 9.9 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 10.9 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 7.9 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 10.8 | — |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 17 | 9.0 | — |
| It's The Crew's Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.3 | 1.02 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 1.84 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 11.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 13 | 9.4 | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | A | 9 | 4.2 | — |
| Rose Bowl | Crew | A | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 8 | 5.2 | — |
| Jesuit Interconference | Crew | B | 12 | 2.4 | — |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Crew | B | 15 | 13.3 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ice Breaker | Crew | B | 13 | 5.2 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | B | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Crew | A, B | 10 | 7.5 | — |
| Sacred Heart Invitational | Crew | B | 8 | 3.0 | — |
| Midweek Fly 10/22 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | C | 11 | 7.3 | — |
| FJ Invitational | Crew | A | 6 | 8.0 | — |
| Dark of Night | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Central Series6 | Crew | B | 7 | 4.9 | — |
| Central Series One | Crew | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| Central 3 | Crew | B | 5 | 4.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Taylor Hart |  Darien High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
