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Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 9–4
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9–4
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9–4
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–5
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 6–7
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6–7
7 Boston College Boston College Eagles 4–6
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2–8
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 54 matches (54%) with a log-loss of 0.763 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.93 ± 0.29: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		29.39
school +0.15		Casey Klingler / Caroline Colwell 3.22
Christine Klingler / Catherine Mollerus 2.72
Louisa Nordstrom / Claire Huebner 3.27		77%9–4 (69%)−1.0
2Tufts University
Jumbos		97.04
school +0.08, home +0.39		Molly Pleskus / Taylor Hart 2.50
Emily Shanley-Roberts / Lindsay Powers
Talia Toland / Lucy Robison 2.39		25%9–4 (69%)+5.8
3Dartmouth College
Big Green		48.45
school +0.13		Emma White / Peninah Benjamin 2.96
Kathryn Hall / Lisa Genthner
Audrey Giblin / Sophia Diserio 3.00 7–2
Audrey Giblin / Mary Amis 2.94 2–2		57%9–4 (69%)+1.6
4Brown University
Bears		19.43
school +0.17		Ragna Agerup / Maxine De Havenon 3.15 7–5
Hannah Steadman / Annabelle Hutchinson 3.12 7–4
Lindsey Baab / Abigayle Konys 3.13 5–5
Lindsey Baab / Grace Gagnon 3.11 3–0
Sophie Hibben / Annabelle Hutchinson 2.41 1–1
Sophie Hibben / Maxine De Havenon 2.34 1–0		79%8–5 (62%)−2.3
5Boston University
Terriers		67.55
school −0.15		Lydia Grasberger / Katherine Bertolini 2.81
Maia Agerup / Caroline Salas 2.81
Allison Cahn / Emily Croteau		37%6–7 (46%)+1.1
5University of South Florida
Bulls		77.45
school +0.08		Marina Barzaghi / Darby Capellin 2.85
Delaney Brown / Rachel Yannelli
Sarah Streater / Kathryn Bornarth 5–7
Sarah Streater / Augustine Haile 1–0		34%6–7 (46%)+1.6
7Boston College
Eagles		57.88
school +0.14		Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 2.94
Lily Mcgrath / Kyla Maclennan 2.65
Caroline Downey / Elizabeth Russell 2.11 2–3
Caroline Downey / Caroline Rochford 2.11 2–3		47%4–6 (40%)−0.7
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		38.53
school +0.14		Greta Farrell / Kaila Pfrang 2.56
Annie Hughes / Tiffany Xi 2.76
Emily Haig / Brooke Mcgoldrick 3.00		63%2–8 (20%)−4.3
9University of Rhode Island
Rams		87.11
school −0.27		Delaney Bamford / Cecilia Schneider 2.54
Sarah Hermus / Hannah Scanlon 3.12 0–7
Rebecca Read / Caroline Rocchio 0–4
Rebecca Read / Sage Walters 0–3
Sarah Hermus / Sage Walters 3.04 1–2
Rebecca Read / Hannah Scanlon 1–2		29%1–9 (10%)−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Tufts University7.049.309–43.2+2.269.5<1%
3Dartmouth College8.459.119–47.4+0.660.725%
5University of South Florida7.458.076–74.4+0.620.723%
5Boston University7.557.976–74.9+0.420.434%
7Boston College7.887.564–64.7−0.320.279%
1Yale University9.398.929–410.0−0.470.486%
4Brown University9.438.488–510.3−0.951.797%
9University of Rhode Island7.115.761–92.9−1.351.697%
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.536.342–86.3−2.196.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Audrey GiblinDartmouth College3.003.669–47.4+0.660.725%
Kathryn HallDartmouth College2.142.809–47.4+0.660.725%
Allison CahnBoston University1.972.396–74.9+0.420.434%
Isabella LoosbrockBoston College2.942.624–64.7−0.320.279%
Sophie HibbenBrown University2.411.662–12.4−0.750.290%
Lindsey BaabBrown University3.132.188–510.3−0.951.797%
Sarah HermusUniversity of Rhode Island3.121.771–92.9−1.351.697%
Greta FarrellMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.560.382–86.3−2.196.5>99%
Annie HughesMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.760.572–86.3−2.196.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Brown UniversityBoston College85%
12Dartmouth CollegeBoston University69%
13Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology18%upset
14University of South FloridaUniversity of Rhode Island57%
15Yale UniversityBoston College82%
16Boston UniversityBrown University20%upset
17Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology46%upset
18Tufts UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island49%upset
19Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
110Boston UniversityBoston College40%upset
111Dartmouth CollegeBrown University23%upset
112Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island81%
113University of South FloridaTufts University59%
114Brown UniversityYale University55%
115Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology27%upset
116Tufts UniversityDartmouth College20%upset
117Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island69%
118Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology75%
119University of South FloridaBoston University47%upset
120Yale UniversityDartmouth College72%
121Tufts UniversityBrown University7%upset
122Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island61%
123Tufts UniversityBoston College30%upset
124Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology70%
125Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island83%
126University of South FloridaMassachusetts Institute of Technology25%upset
127Dartmouth CollegeBoston College62%
128Boston UniversityYale University14%upset
129University of South FloridaDartmouth College28%upset
130Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology34%upset
131Yale UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island90%
132Tufts UniversityBoston University37%upset
133Brown UniversityUniversity of South Florida89%
134University of Rhode IslandDartmouth College22%upset
135Tufts UniversityYale University9%upset
136University of South FloridaBoston College38%upset
337Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology34%upset
338Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island66%
339Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island79%
640Brown UniversityBoston University79%
641Yale UniversityUniversity of South Florida87%
642Dartmouth CollegeTufts University81%
643Boston UniversityUniversity of South Florida51%
644Dartmouth CollegeBrown University25%upset
645Yale UniversityTufts University91%
646Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of South Florida72%
647Yale UniversityBoston University86%
648Brown UniversityTufts University93%
649Dartmouth CollegeYale University31%upset
650Brown UniversityUniversity of South Florida88%
651Tufts UniversityBoston University37%upset
652Yale UniversityBrown University44%upset
653Dartmouth CollegeBoston University72%
654Tufts UniversityUniversity of South Florida38%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsJumbosGreenBearsTerriersBullsEaglesEngineersRams
Yale University Bulldogs5–3✕LWLLWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos7–1W✕WWWLWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green4–4LL✕WWLWWL
Brown University Bears5–3WLL✕LWWWW
Boston University Terriers5–3WLLW✕LWWW
University of South Florida Bulls6–2LWWLW✕WWW
Boston College Eagles2–6LLLLLL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–7LLLLLLL✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams1–7LLWLLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EaglesEngineersRams
Boston College Eagles2–0✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–1L✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–2LL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.BulldogsJumbosGreenBearsTerriersBulls
Yale University Bulldogs4–1✕WLWWW
Tufts University Jumbos2–3L✕LLWW
Dartmouth College Big Green5–0WW✕WWW
Brown University Bears3–2LWL✕WW
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
2 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
4 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
5 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
6 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
7 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
8 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
9 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
10 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
11 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
13 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
14 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
15 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5 DSQ
16 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-5
17 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
19 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
20 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 4-5-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
22 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
23 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
24 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
25 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
26 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-5-6
27 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
28 Boston University Terriers 2-3-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-6
29 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-5
30 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
31 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
32 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
33 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
34 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-6
35 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
36 University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
37 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
38 Boston College Eagles 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
39 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
40 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
41 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
42 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
43 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
44 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
45 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
46 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
47 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
48 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
49 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
50 Brown University Bears 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
51 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
52 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
53 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
54 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 45°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From N (1°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1016.8 hPa Rain0.05 in Snow0.19 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →