University of Rhode Island '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.87 (fleet 3.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–32 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 8–32 against 9.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.12 | 1.77 | 1–9 | 2.9 | −1.35 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 2.82 | 4–8 | 4.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.06 | 2.14 | 3–15 | 2.8 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 4.30 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 3.09 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 4.58 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.4 | 4.07 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.2 | 3.74 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.6 | 4.60 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.3 | 4.09 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.3 | 3.99 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.0 | 4.22 |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.3 | 3.78 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.4 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.83 |
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.4 | 3.32 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.3 | 2.68 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 3.35 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 4.37 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.4 | 3.16 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.7 | 2.93 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.2 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 2.65 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.2 | 3.67 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.1 | 3.35 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.0 | 4.38 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 2.43 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 2.80 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.5 | 2.81 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 3.17 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.9 | 3.29 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 3.06 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 3.63 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 3.81 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.7 | 2.91 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.8 | 3.29 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.0 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.5 | 3.42 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.5 | 3.08 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.9 | 3.14 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.4 | 3.44 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 3.69 |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.5 | 2.57 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 3.00 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 4.11 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.5 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.2 | 3.25 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.2 | 2.90 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 2.66 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.1 | 3.41 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.5 | 2.92 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 2.74 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.0 | 3.10 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.1 | 1.68 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 3.34 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.2 | 1.76 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 2.43 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 3.00 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.5 | 2.80 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.36 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.6 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | 2.29 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 2.21 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.3 | 2.10 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.7 | 1.68 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.9 | 1.82 |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 0.86 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.8 | 0.35 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 2.93 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
