Tufts University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 57.74 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.113 rating points from 32 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.20 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 30 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 2.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–45 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 11–27 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 27–45 against 25.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.62 | -0.38 | 0–16 | 4.4 | ≤−3.00 | 7.2 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 4.76 | 9–4 | 3.2 | +2.26 | 9.5 | <1% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 2.39 | 2–7 | 2.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.01 | 6–8 | 5.1 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.19 | 2.22 | 6–4 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.17 | 1.78 | 4–6 | 4.7 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Baby 'Bos - Tufts Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.0 | 2.70 |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 3.26 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.50 |
| Ryan Richards Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 2 | 16.0 | -0.91 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 3.59 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.6 | 2.57 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.1 | 3.04 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 3.02 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 2.66 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.9 | 2.94 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 3.40 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 3.30 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.8 | 2.67 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.8 | 2.78 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.0 | 2.91 |
| It's The Crew's Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 2.3 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 3.66 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.2 | 2.48 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.0 | 2.36 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.7 | 3.22 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.1 | 2.32 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 3.38 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.5 | 2.74 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.6 | 3.30 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.0 | 2.19 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 2.54 |
| Tufts Women's Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 2.3 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.5 | 2.60 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 3.06 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 2.85 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 17.0 | 1.74 |
| NEISA Women Singles Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.0 | 2.47 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.4 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Ryan Richards (Tufts) Alumni Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 7.2 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.6 | 2.39 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 2.24 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.8 | 1.62 |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | 2.05 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.3 | 2.49 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.5 | 2.47 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | 2.30 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 1.40 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 5.3 | 2.99 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 2.18 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Central Series6 | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 3.94 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 14 | 13.8 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.8 | 2.08 |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A, B | 8 | 1.5 | 2.87 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.6 | 3.25 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 2.25 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.32 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 2.88 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.7 | 3.15 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 12.0 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.8 | 2.21 |
| Dark of Night | Crew | A | 2 | 6.5 | — |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 2.01 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 1.97 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Molly Pleskus |  Cathedral Catholic High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
