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NEISA Women Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
Boston College Boston College Erika Reineke '17 6 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 28
Brown University Brown University Lindsey Baab '18 11 3 2 2 3 4 4 2 5 3 2 5 5 51
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dana Rohde '18 4 2 4 3 13 1 2 3 2 6 3 11 2 56
Boston College Boston College Isabella Loosbrock '19 3 5 7 7 2 12 5 BKD 13 8 5 1 7 81
Yale University Yale University Louisa Nordstrom '20 2 9 5 8 5 2 12 7 7 4 9 13 3 86
Brown University Brown University Hannah Steadman '20 5 10 6 4 8 3 8 8 11 5 6 7 6 87
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Emily Wright '20 8 8 11 12 4 8 3 4 4 10 7 3 13 95
Harvard University Harvard University Sofia Marie Mascia '20 9 7 9 5 7 5 13 5 6 1 RAF 4 10 97
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Madelynn Widmeier '19 1 4 10 6 10 11 11 10 9 7 12 8 12 111
Connecticut College Connecticut College Alexandra Maurillo '18 10 6 13 9 6 10 9 9 8 9 4 12 8 113
Tufts University Tufts University Molly Pleskus '18 12 11 3 11 9 6 6 12 3 13 10 10 11 117
Connecticut College Connecticut College Charlotte List '18 14 14 12 13 11 13 10 6 10 11 8 6 4 132
Harvard University Harvard University Jessica Williams '20 13 12 8 10 12 7 7 11 12 12 11 9 9 133
Connecticut College Connecticut College Eliza Garry '17 7 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 183
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Autumn Becker '20 15 15 15 15 15 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 202

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  15 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Erika Reineke '17Boston College Eagles 113/133.835.06+1.2394th → 99th4.42%2.2 / 4.6
2Lindsey Baab '18Brown University Bears 113/133.073.86+0.7883rd → 94th2.48%3.9 / 6.1
3Dana Rohde '18U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 113/132.953.36+0.4181st → 89th0.711%4.3 / 6.4
4Louisa Nordstrom '20Yale University13/132.772.45−0.3274th → 62nd0.549%6.6 / 6.7
5Hannah Steadman '20Brown University Bears 213/132.612.77+0.1568th → 74th0.144%6.7 / 7.1
6Isabella Loosbrock '19Boston College Eagles 213/132.542.63+0.0966th → 69th0.048%7.0 / 7.2
7Emily Wright '20U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 213/132.042.32+0.2853rd → 60th0.330%7.3 / 8.4
8Sofia Marie Mascia '20Harvard University Crimson 213/131.732.68+0.9543rd → 71st3.324%7.5 / 9.0
9Madelynn Widmeier '19U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 313/131.861.98+0.1247th → 51st0.147%8.5 / 8.7
10Alexandra Maurillo '18Connecticut College Camels 113/132.062.17+0.1153rd → 57th0.157%8.7 / 8.3
11Molly Pleskus '18Tufts University13/132.091.76−0.3355th → 43rd0.565%9.0 / 8.2
12Charlotte List '18Connecticut College Camels 213/132.341.37−0.9760th → 33rd5.187%10.2 / 7.7
13Jessica Williams '20Harvard University Crimson 113/131.961.67−0.2950th → 41st0.579%10.2 / 8.5
14Eliza Garry '17Connecticut College Camels 313/131.000.10−0.9022nd → 7th1.999%14.1 / 10.4
15Autumn Becker '20University of New Hampshire13/13-0.39——3rd → —4.5>99%15.5 / 12.7

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From N (360°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →