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NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dana Rohde '18 7 2 5 12 2 3 4 2 6 2 2 47
Tufts University Tufts University Talia Toland '21 3 7 2 2 6 8 2 1 1 5 12 49
Boston University Boston University Anna Weis '20 6 8 3 1 5 5 1 7 3 6 4 49
Brown University Brown University Lindsey Baab '18 5 3 1 3 4 2 9 4 9 1 11 52
Boston College Boston College Sophia Reineke '21 4 1 6 4 3 10 5 12 4 3 3 55
Yale University Yale University Louisa Nordstrom '20 9 11 4 10 1 1 6 3 8 4 9 66
Boston College Boston College Isabella Loosbrock '19 1 5 7 5 8 12 3 16 13 12 6 88
Brown University Brown University Hannah Steadman '20 8 10 11 7 13 4 8 10 5 10 5 91
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Madelynn Widmeier '19 11 6 8 11 16 9 16 8 2 17 1 105
Yale University Yale University Christine Klingler '20 2 9 13 8 14 13 11 14 11 8 15 118
Tufts University Tufts University Molly Pleskus '18 10 4 9 6 7 15 13 6 17 15 17 119
Harvard University Harvard University Jessica Williams '20 14 12 14 14 11 7 17 9 10 7 7 122
Connecticut College Connecticut College Charlotte List '18 15 16 15 9 15 6 10 15 12 11 10 134
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Claire Havig '21 13 14 10 13 12 11 15 5 15 14 13 135
Tufts University Tufts University Lindsay Powers '21 12 13 16 16 9 14 7 17 16 9 8 137
Connecticut College Connecticut College Alexandra Maurillo '18 17 15 12 15 10 16 12 11 7 13 14 142
Connecticut College Connecticut College Haley Kachmar '18 16 17 17 17 17 17 14 13 14 16 16 174

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  17 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Dana Rohde '18U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 111/113.414.20+0.7889th → 97th2.18%4.3 / 6.9
2Anna Weis '20Boston University11/112.524.31+1.7965th → 98th9.43%4.5 / 9.1
2Talia Toland '21Tufts University Jumbos 211/113.104.13+1.0384th → 96th3.59%4.5 / 7.7
4Lindsey Baab '18Brown University Bears 211/113.204.04+0.8485th → 95th2.49%4.7 / 7.4
5Sophia Reineke '21Boston College Eagles 111/113.613.91+0.3092nd → 95th0.325%5.0 / 6.4
6Louisa Nordstrom '20Yale University Bulldogs 111/112.953.59+0.6481st → 92nd1.516%6.0 / 8.1
7Isabella Loosbrock '19Boston College Eagles 211/113.032.77−0.2683rd → 74th0.355%8.0 / 7.8
8Hannah Steadman '20Brown University Bears 111/112.793.00+0.2175th → 82nd0.248%8.3 / 8.4
9Madelynn Widmeier '19U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 211/112.402.02−0.3861st → 53rd0.652%9.5 / 9.5
10Christine Klingler '20Yale University Bulldogs 211/112.572.30−0.2667th → 60th0.375%10.7 / 9.0
11Molly Pleskus '18Tufts University Jumbos 311/112.311.70−0.6160th → 42nd1.468%10.8 / 9.6
12Jessica Williams '20Harvard University11/111.942.08+0.1450th → 54th0.157%11.1 / 10.5
13Charlotte List '18Connecticut College Camels 311/112.621.81−0.8269th → 44th3.390%12.2 / 8.9
14Claire Havig '21Bowdoin College11/112.001.99−0.0152nd → 51st0.076%12.3 / 10.5
15Lindsay Powers '21Tufts University Jumbos 111/111.621.63+0.0140th → 40th0.066%12.5 / 11.3
16Alexandra Maurillo '18Connecticut College Camels 111/112.381.52−0.8661st → 38th3.491%12.9 / 9.6
17Haley Kachmar '18Connecticut College Camels 211/111.140.37−0.7725th → 11th1.896%15.8 / 12.4

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.4 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From NNE (23°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1015.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →