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Baby 'Bos - Tufts Alumni Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 16 30 30
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 30 30
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 32 32
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 36 36
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 39 39
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 43 43
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 46 46
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 48 48
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 53 53
10 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 53 53
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 15 57 57
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 58 58
13 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 62 62
14 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 67 67
15 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 75 75
16 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 92 92
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 16 2 13 1 1 8 5 30 William Hutchings '13
Ann Sheridan '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 5 2 3 7 5 8 30 Julien Guiot '18
Emma Clutterbuck '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 9 5 10 3 4 1 32 Maryclaire Kiernan '17
Julia Fuller '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 4 8 2 OCS 2 3 36 Alexander Tong '17
Lara Dienemann '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 11 3 14 7 4 1 10 39 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Lindsay Powers '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 12 3 5 8 13 2 43 Casey Gowrie '16
Michelle Chisdak '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 11 6 6 6 10 7 46 Dan Nickerson '15
Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 13 1 9 10 11 4 48 Charles Proctor '14
Lizzie Keys '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 11 12 13 7 9 53 Molly Pleskus '18
Duke Saunders '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 6 4 13 12 12 6 53 Mariel Marchand '13
Sara Makaretz '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 15 14 12 8 2 9 12 57 James Moody '16
Caroline Ambros '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 7 15 11 9 3 13 58 William Haeger '14
Kate Klement '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 10 9 4 5 DNS DNS 62 Nick Martin '19
Mara Porter '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 15 7 14 11 6 14 67 T. Max Bulger '13
Sam Madden '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 13 8 10 15 OCS 14 11 75 Aaron Klein '18
Lucy Robison '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 16 16 16 14 15 15 92 Hannah Duggan '15
Emily Lynn '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 10131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11191919191919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 12111111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 13181818181818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 14333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 15141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 16222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2212121212121
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4161616161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 5171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 6202020202020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 7111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 8101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 9121212121212

Conditions — 05/18/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNW (348°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.23
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.51 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →