Tufts University '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 17.81 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 12 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 (fleet 3.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–24 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (42 matches) the record is 18–24 against 20.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 3.33 | 6–8 | 5.1 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.85 | 2.88 | 6–4 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.70 | 1.85 | 6–12 | 9.1 | −0.85 | 1.9 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Baby 'Bos - Tufts Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 3.98 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.4 | 3.87 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 3.51 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.9 | 2.87 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.1 | 3.79 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 3.89 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 3.41 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 3.64 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 4.31 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.77 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.9 | 3.46 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 3.13 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | 4.92 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.1 | 3.78 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 3.14 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.8 | 3.09 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 2.85 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 3.15 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.90 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.6 | 3.14 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.3 | 3.42 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.77 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 2.55 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.1 | 3.79 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.81 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 3.83 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.1 | 2.78 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 2.90 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.1 | 2.44 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.6 | 3.71 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.1 | 3.14 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 2.49 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.8 | 3.21 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 1.34 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 2.54 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.1 | 2.89 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 7.5 | 2.48 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 1.98 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.5 | 3.06 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.1 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.0 | 2.65 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.8 | 2.05 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 15.8 | — |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.1 | 1.83 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.6 | 2.17 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.7 | 2.15 |
| Lark Invitational, Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.6 | 0.85 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 3.22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
