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Lark Invitational, Central Series 1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 143
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 185
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 198
4 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 222
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 225
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 283
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 339
8 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 447
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 5 2 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 6 1 5 1 7 10 59 Scott Barbano '17
Sara Makaretz '14
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 4 1 2 3 5 3 3 7 11 2 4 1 14 1 3 64 Robert Floyd '17
Sophie Kerr '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 2 3 13 1 2 10 4 11 7 8 3 2 3 4 1 74 James Beatty '17 [1-10]
Casey Gowrie '16 [11-15]
Caitlin Durand '15 [1-10]
Hannah Duggan '15 [11-15]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 10 4 3 10 9 4 8 4 2 4 8 9 2 2 5 84 Maryclaire Kiernan '17
Kate Wasynczuk '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University A 3 5 7 5 4 1 11 8 1 1 5 10 13 5 8 87 John Rolander '17 [1-10]
Maxwell Bennett '16 [11-15]
Natalie Danziger '17 [1-10]
Claire Brodie '16 [11-15]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 13 8 10 6 10 8 13 5 4 5 6 3 6 8 4 109 Richard Bergsund '15
Karen Kennedy '17
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 8 11 4 7 13 9 1 9 10 7 10 8 7 3 9 116 Ames Lyman '14 [1-10]
Ansel Duff '15 [11-15]
Hajar El Fatihi '16 [1-10]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 7 7 BKD 2 12 6 12 3 13 12 9 14 4 6 6 121 Emily Petno '16
Victor Hollenberg '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 1 6 1 12 8 11 9 1 12 3 14 13 9 11 13 124 Alp Rodopman '17 [1-10]
Pierre Dupont '16 [11-15]
Caroline Ambros '17 [1-10]
Sadie Woolf '17 [11-15]
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University B 11 10 8 8 11 13 6 10 6 14 7 7 5 12 7 135 Sam Gates '17 [1-10]
Nicholas Pfosi '16 [11-15]
Isabelle Sennett '17 [1-10]
Joshua Pfosi '16 [11-15]
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 12 13 9 9 7 7 10 13 9 9 13 4 10 9 2 136 Simon Bertocci '16 [1-10]
Zachary Vickerson '16 [11-15]
Anna Booras '16 [1-10]
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons B BKD 12 5 13 6 5 5 6 5 11 12 15 11 13 11 139 Kristina Schneider '16 [1-15]
Mikaela Donovan '15 [1-10]
Max Resnick '14 [11-15]
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 6 14 11 11 1 14 7 15 8 13 11 6 8 10 12 147 Joseph Benoit '16 [1-10]
Jackson Chabot '14 [11-15]
Hannah Callahan '16 [1-10]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges A 14 15 12 14 14 12 15 12 15 15 2 11 12 15 14 192 Sarah Hyman '15
Dan Marks '14
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons A 9 9 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 10 15 12 15 14 15 200 Tyler Durant '14
Cassandra Layman '17
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 255 Lauren Wild '09
Lara Billet '09
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons22222222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers33333333
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges11111111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green44444444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson66666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya88888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos77777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University99999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons1111111111111111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1212121212121212
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges1010101010101010
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green1313131313131313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1414141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1616161616161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1515151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University1818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bentley University Bentley University Tyler Durant '14 Cassandra Layman '17
Falcons Kristina Schneider '16 [1-15] Mikaela Donovan '15 [1-10]
Max Resnick '14 [11-15]
Boston University Boston University Simon Bertocci '16 [1-10]
Zachary Vickerson '16 [11-15]		 Anna Booras '16 [1-10]
Terriers Joseph Benoit '16 [1-10]
Jackson Chabot '14 [11-15]		 Hannah Callahan '16 [1-10]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Sarah Hyman '15 Dan Marks '14
Judges Lauren Wild '09 Lara Billet '09
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Robert Floyd '17 Sophie Kerr '17
Big Green Emily Petno '16 Victor Hollenberg '14
Harvard University Harvard University Richard Bergsund '15 Karen Kennedy '17
Crimson Ames Lyman '14 [1-10]
Ansel Duff '15 [11-15]		 Hajar El Fatihi '16 [1-10]
Tufts University Tufts University Alp Rodopman '17 [1-10]
Pierre Dupont '16 [11-15]		 Caroline Ambros '17 [1-10]
Sadie Woolf '17 [11-15]
Jumbalaya James Beatty '17 [1-10]
Casey Gowrie '16 [11-15]		 Caitlin Durand '15 [1-10]
Hannah Duggan '15 [11-15]
Tufts University Tufts University Scott Barbano '17 Sara Makaretz '14
Jumbos Maryclaire Kiernan '17 Kate Wasynczuk '16
Tufts University Tufts University John Rolander '17 [1-10]
Maxwell Bennett '16 [11-15]		 Natalie Danziger '17 [1-10]
Claire Brodie '16 [11-15]
Tufts University Sam Gates '17 [1-10]
Nicholas Pfosi '16 [11-15]		 Isabelle Sennett '17 [1-10]
Joshua Pfosi '16 [11-15]

Conditions — 09/14/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From NW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1012.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn · W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.41 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →