Dartmouth College '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.83 (fleet 3.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 64–52 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 33–13 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 18–17 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 9–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (116 matches) the record is 64–52 against 58.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 22 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.86 | 3.61 | 14–9 | 15.1 | −0.25 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2017-04-01 | The 36th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.84 | 6.28 | 12–2 | 5.3 | +2.44 | 10.6 | <1% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.75 | 5.07 | 7–2 | 4.6 | +1.31 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.40 | 3.81 | 12–12 | 10.5 | +0.41 | 0.4 | 29% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.33 | 3.35 | 6–5 | 6.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.27 | 4.29 | 4–8 | 2.1 | +1.02 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 1.14 | 5–13 | 11.1 | −1.70 | 7.3 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.67 | 3.63 | 4–1 | 3.5 | +0.96 | 0.3 | 48% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
