Boston University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 (fleet 1.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–16 (11%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 2–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 2–16 against 2.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 0.82 | 0.73 | 2–16 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 2.11 |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.1 | 1.09 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational, Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | -1.86 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 0.94 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | 0.88 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 2.13 |
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.7 | 1.48 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | -0.50 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor NoRinger Invitational | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.9 | 0.83 |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | -2.73 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Wellesley Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.2 | -2.16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
