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Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12 34 46
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 29 25 54
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 25 31 56
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 41 22 63
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 30 50 80
6 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 47 44 91
7 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 58 45 103
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 58 51 109
9 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 50 80 130
10 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 72 62 134
11 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 80 70 150
12 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 100 52 152
13 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 57 99 156
14 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 84 85 169
15 Bates College Bates College Tomcats 92 90 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 12 Colin Meade '16
Kate Shaner '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 3 2 3 2 10 3 25 Evan Gregory '16
Kristen Kuzil '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 1 1 5 5 5 9 29 Alexandra Swanson '16
Emmett Weeks '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 30 David Rodriguez Fuentes '13
Kayla Ngan '15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 8 8 9 3 4 2 41 Jackson Chabot '14
Indre Jankeviciute '15
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 12 5 5 6 11 3 5 47 Olivia Wright '15
Thomas Erwes '14
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 5 7 7 1 13 7 10 50 Cynthia Connard '15
Mallory Brown '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 9 6 12 BKD 6 8 8 57 Amanda Sutherland '??
Christopher Mark '14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 8 9 6 10 7 11 7 58 Andrew Angione '13
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 10 11 9 7 9 1 11 58 Rebecca Uttormark '16
Kate Middleton '15
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 6 10 10 8 12 14 12 72 Michelle Guidotti '13
Shawna Denn '13
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 13 11 12 15 12 6 80 Earl Lin '15
Kellyn Maves '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 13 12 13 11 8 13 14 84 Timothy Donahoe '15
Bates College Bates College Tomcats 15 14 14 15 10 9 15 92 Peter Novello '16
Yang Guo '14
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 14 15 15 14 14 15 13 100 Hannah Spiro '15
Kaitlin Hulce '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 2 2 2 1 1 12 22 Zachary Vickerson '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 6 1 3 3 4 4 25 Katherine Sudol '16
Elizabeth Sturr '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 1 4 8 4 5 3 31 Minot Frye '16
Linnea Goldstein '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 9 6 9 2 2 1 34 Pierre Dupont '16
Emily Peck '16
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 8 11 5 5 10 3 2 44 Emmet Austin '16
Catherine Ross '16
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 3 5 8 7 6 9 7 45 Marco Catipovic '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 8 7 4 5 10 9 50 Sarah Mountjoy '14
Jordan Mlsna '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 4 13 12 8 8 5 51 Amelia Connell '16
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 12 3 3 6 9 6 13 52 Hannah Spiro '15
Kaitlin Hulce '14
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 14 10 10 1 12 7 8 62 Maggie Mcdonald '14
Emma Linden '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 10 7 9 15 11 12 6 70 Earl Lin '15
Kellyn Maves '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 9 12 12 13 13 11 10 80
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 13 15 15 10 7 14 11 85 Timothy Donahoe '15
Bates College Bates College Tomcats 11 13 11 11 14 15 15 90 William Sartorius '16
Benjamin Wilentz '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 15 14 14 14 15 13 14 99 Amanda Sutherland '??
Christopher Mark '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (56 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs2244668
Bates CollegeBates College Tomcats991111131315
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers881010121214
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges7799111113
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears3355779
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies151522446
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds1010121214141
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers13131515224
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers12121414113
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats44668810
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1133557
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos6688101012
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs141411335
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue55779911
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1111131315152

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs3355777
Bates CollegeBates College Tomcats10101212141414
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers991111131313
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges881010121212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears4466888
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1133555
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds11111313151515
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers141411333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers13131515222
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats5577999
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies2244666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos7799111111
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs151522444
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue6688101010
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals12121414111

Conditions — 11/03/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1006.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1006.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston University: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →