Ryan Richards (Tufts) Alumni Regatta

HostTufts
Date05/28/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatLark
Scoring2 Divisions

Analysis

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos 13	37	15	52
2	Tufts University	Jumbos 18	14	46	60
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 15	36	32	68
4	Tufts University	Jumbos 17	25	52	77
5	Tufts University	Jumbos 12	31	46	77
6	Tufts University	Jumbos 9	41	63	104
7	Tufts University	Jumbos 8	55	58	113
8	Tufts University	Jumbos 11	36	79	115
9	Tufts University	Jumbos 3	80	35	115
10	Tufts University	Jumbos 10	70	46	116
11	Tufts University	Jumbos 7	38	80	118
12	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	83	43	126
13	Tufts University	Jumbos 14	55	79	134
14	Tufts University	Jumbos 5	91	48	139
15	Tufts University	Jumbos 6	79	71	150
16	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	61	97	158
17	Tufts University	Jumbos 16	102	61	163
18	Tufts University	Jumbos 4	92	75	167

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 18	3	1	1	7	1	1	14	Matt Cohen '03 Ariel Babcock '04
Tufts University	Jumbos 17	1	2	4	6	5	7	25	Pete Levesque '03 Caroline Levesque '03
Tufts University	Jumbos 12	2	6	6	9	2	6	31	Charlie Hibben '22 Meghan Siegal '99
Tufts University	Jumbos 11	7	8	3	3	6	9	36	Ramsay Key '98 Ery Largay-Conn '99
Tufts University	Jumbos 15	9	3	13	1	7	3	36	Cardwell Potts '04 Gretchen Curtis '00
Tufts University	Jumbos 13	12	4	5	5	3	8	37	Kyle Shattuck '99 Kahler Newsham '19
Tufts University	Jumbos 7	11	7	10	4	4	2	38	Steve Kirkpatrick '90 Jane Kirkpatrick '90
Tufts University	Jumbos 9	5	12	2	2	9	11	41	Rob Richards '95 Kiri Key '00
Tufts University	Jumbos 8	6	10	7	10	8	14	55	Francis Blesso '91 Margaret Veltri '20
Tufts University	Jumbos 14	8	5	11	12	15	4	55	Mike Richards '00 Sabina Van Mell '19
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	15	9	8	8	11	10	61	Sam Altruer '90 Ashley Smith '19
Tufts University	Jumbos 10	4	13	12	11	17	13	70	Scott Leonard '98 Sarah Bunney '19
Tufts University	Jumbos 6	16	16	15	17	10	5	79	John Tagliamonte '90 Grace Olsen '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 3	17	15	9	13	14	12	80	Michael Edelman '90 Daniel Edelman '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	13	11	14	15	13	17	83	Aaron Klein '18 Lara Dienemann '18
Tufts University	Jumbos 5	10	18	17	18	12	16	91	Evan Robison '21 Lucy Robison '18
Tufts University	Jumbos 4	14	14	16	14	16	18	92	George Atwood '90 Roddy Atwood '00
Tufts University	Jumbos 16	18	17	18	16	18	15	102	Reid Van Gorder '04 Andi Pinto '00

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 13	1	1	6	5	1	1	15	William Haeger '14 Paula Grasberger '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 15	2	4	3	10	2	11	32	Willem Sandberg '14 Mara Porter '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 3	3	11	2	1	12	6	35	Tomas Hornos '10 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	9	2	1	3	15	13	43	Tyler "Tmac" Macdonald '15 Molly Pleskus '18
Tufts University	Jumbos 12	4	5	11	6	11	9	46	Natalie Salk '13 Kate Shaner '16
Tufts University	Jumbos 10	11	9	13	7	3	3	46	William Hutchings '13 Caitlin Durand '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 18	12	7	7	9	6	5	46	Duncan Swain '15 Julie Pringle '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 5	6	8	15	11	4	4	48	Andrew Kriezis '10 Jennifer Watkins-Potts '10
Tufts University	Jumbos 17	10	3	4	8	10	17	52	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Sam Madden '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 8	14	16	8	4	8	8	58	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 Alyson Yee '12
Tufts University	Jumbos 16	7	6	16	13	9	10	61	Dan Nickerson '15 Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 9	15	10	5	17	14	2	63	Amanda Sommi '16 Amanda Sommi '16
Tufts University	Jumbos 6	16	13	17	2	5	18	71	Will Pelleteri '12 Caroline Atwood '16
Tufts University	Jumbos 4	17	15	9	12	7	15	75	Massimo Soriano '12 Ian Morgan '19
Tufts University	Jumbos 11	5	18	18	14	17	7	79	Albert Nichols '13 Kate Hitchner '00
Tufts University	Jumbos 14	13	12	12	15	13	14	79	Charles Proctor '14 Lizzie Keys '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 7	8	14	14	16	16	12	80	Renee Gagne '12 Midori Tanaka '12
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	18	17	10	18	18	16	97	Jason Majane '08 Vanessa Weekly '08

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Tufts University Jumbos 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Tufts University Jumbos 11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 13	19	19	19	19	19	19
Tufts University Jumbos 14	20	20	20	20	20	20
Tufts University Jumbos 15	21	21	21	21	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 16	22	22	22	22	22	22
Tufts University Jumbos 17	23	23	23	23	23	23
Tufts University Jumbos 18	24	24	24	24	24	24
Tufts University Jumbos 2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos 4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos 5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Tufts University Jumbos 1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Tufts University Jumbos 11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 13	19	19	19	19	19	19
Tufts University Jumbos 14	20	20	20	20	20	20
Tufts University Jumbos 15	21	21	21	21	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 16	22	22	22	22	22	22
Tufts University Jumbos 17	23	23	23	23	23	23
Tufts University Jumbos 18	24	24	24	24	24	24
Tufts University Jumbos 2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos 4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos 5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 9	9	9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Tufts University	Sam Altruer '90	Ashley Smith '19
Jumbos 1	Jason Majane '08	Vanessa Weekly '08
Tufts University	Scott Leonard '98	Sarah Bunney '19
Jumbos 10	William Hutchings '13	Caitlin Durand '15
Tufts University	Ramsay Key '98	Ery Largay-Conn '99
Jumbos 11	Albert Nichols '13	Kate Hitchner '00
Tufts University	Charlie Hibben '22	Meghan Siegal '99
Jumbos 12	Natalie Salk '13	Kate Shaner '16
Tufts University	Kyle Shattuck '99	Kahler Newsham '19
Jumbos 13	William Haeger '14	Paula Grasberger '14
Tufts University	Mike Richards '00	Sabina Van Mell '19
Jumbos 14	Charles Proctor '14	Lizzie Keys '14
Tufts University	Cardwell Potts '04	Gretchen Curtis '00
Jumbos 15	Willem Sandberg '14	Mara Porter '14
Tufts University	Reid Van Gorder '04	Andi Pinto '00
Jumbos 16	Dan Nickerson '15	Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University	Pete Levesque '03	Caroline Levesque '03
Jumbos 17	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15	Sam Madden '15
Tufts University	Matt Cohen '03	Ariel Babcock '04
Jumbos 18	Duncan Swain '15	Julie Pringle '14
Tufts University	Aaron Klein '18	Lara Dienemann '18
Jumbos 2	Tyler "Tmac" Macdonald '15	Molly Pleskus '18
Tufts University	Michael Edelman '90	Daniel Edelman '22
Jumbos 3	Tomas Hornos '10	Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Tufts University	George Atwood '90	Roddy Atwood '00
Jumbos 4	Massimo Soriano '12	Ian Morgan '19
Tufts University	Evan Robison '21	Lucy Robison '18
Jumbos 5	Andrew Kriezis '10	Jennifer Watkins-Potts '10
Tufts University	John Tagliamonte '90	Grace Olsen '15
Jumbos 6	Will Pelleteri '12	Caroline Atwood '16
Tufts University	Steve Kirkpatrick '90	Jane Kirkpatrick '90
Jumbos 7	Renee Gagne '12	Midori Tanaka '12
Tufts University	Francis Blesso '91	Margaret Veltri '20
Jumbos 8	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12	Alyson Yee '12
Tufts University	Rob Richards '95	Kiri Key '00
Jumbos 9	Amanda Sommi '16	Amanda Sommi '16

Conditions — 05/28/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

85°F

↑ 89°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.4 kn

Gusts to 13.0 kn

From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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