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Ryan Richards (Tufts) Alumni Regatta — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W21). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,384 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Matt Cohen '03 Tufts University Jumbos 18 6/6 214n* 413 +199 71st → 99th 7.9 5% 2.3 / 8.0 214*
2 Pete Levesque '03 Tufts University Jumbos 17 6/6 247n* 319 +72 77th → 90th 1.5 24% 4.2 / 7.3 247*
3 Charlie Hibben '22 Tufts University Jumbos 12 6/6 280n* 276 -4 84th → 83rd 0.0 43% 5.2 / 6.4 280*
4 Cardwell Potts '04 Tufts University Jumbos 15 6/6 198n* 239 +41 68th → 76th 0.5 31% 6.0 / 8.5 198*
4 Ramsay Key '98 Tufts University Jumbos 11 6/6 213n* 261 +48 71st → 80th 0.7 33% 6.0 / 8.2 213*
6 Kyle Shattuck '99 Tufts University Jumbos 13 6/6 175n* 255 +79 62nd → 78th 1.9 26% 6.2 / 9.1 175*
7 Steve Kirkpatrick '90 Tufts University Jumbos 7 6/6 215n* 242 +27 71st → 76th 0.2 38% 6.3 / 8.0 215*
8 Rob Richards '95 Tufts University Jumbos 9 6/6 186n* 220 +34 65th → 72nd 0.4 35% 6.8 / 8.7 186*
9 Francis Blesso '91 Tufts University Jumbos 8 6/6 165n* 186 +21 60th → 65th 0.1 49% 9.2 / 9.3 165*
9 Mike Richards '00 Tufts University Jumbos 14 6/6 153n* 169 +16 57th → 61st 0.1 47% 9.2 / 9.6 153*
11 Sam Altruer '90 Tufts University Jumbos 1 6/6 148n* 163 +15 56th → 59th 0.1 55% 10.2 / 9.7 148*
12 Scott Leonard '98 Tufts University Jumbos 10 6/6 111n* 111 -0 47th → 47th 0.0 58% 11.7 / 10.7 111*
13 John Tagliamonte '90 Tufts University Jumbos 6 6/6 77n* 66 -11 40th → 37th 0.0 63% 13.2 / 11.6 77*
14 Michael Edelman '90 Tufts University Jumbos 3 6/6 93n* 85 -7 43rd → 41st 0.0 68% 13.3 / 11.1 93*
15 Aaron Klein '18 Tufts University Jumbos 2 6/6 202* 68 -134 68th → 38th 9.0 98% 13.8 / 8.2 185*
16 Evan Robison '21 Tufts University Jumbos 5 6/6 51n* -11 -61 34th → 21st 1.1 77% 15.2 / 12.2 51*
17 George Atwood '90 Tufts University Jumbos 4 6/6 63n* 45 -19 37th → 32nd 0.1 82% 15.3 / 11.8 63*
18 Reid Van Gorder '04 Tufts University Jumbos 16 6/6 33n* -63 -96 30th → 11th 2.3 92% 17.0 / 12.5 33*

Division B  18 boats · 6 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 William Haeger '14 Tufts University Jumbos 13 6/6 420* 537 +117 99th → 99th 3.1 7% 2.5 / 5.6 405*
2 Willem Sandberg '14 Tufts University Jumbos 15 6/6 342* 412 +70 93rd → 99th 1.5 18% 5.3 / 8.0 346*
3 Tomas Hornos '10 Tufts University Jumbos 3 6/6 345* 379 +34 93rd → 97th 0.4 27% 5.8 / 7.8 366*
4 Tyler "Tmac" Macdonald '15 Tufts University Jumbos 2 6/6 249n* 336 +87 78th → 92nd 2.1 22% 7.2 / 10.6 249*
5 Duncan Swain '15 Tufts University Jumbos 18 6/6 371* 362 -9 96th → 95th 0.0 63% 7.7 / 7.0 353*
5 Natalie Salk '13 Tufts University Jumbos 12 6/6 326* 362 +35 91st → 95th 0.4 44% 7.7 / 8.3 295*
5 William Hutchings '13 Tufts University Jumbos 10 6/6 337* 352 +15 92nd → 94th 0.1 47% 7.7 / 8.1 346*
8 Andrew Kriezis '10 Tufts University Jumbos 5 6/6 260n* 343 +83 80th → 93rd 2.1 30% 8.0 / 10.4 260*
9 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Tufts University Jumbos 17 6/6 390* 294 -95 98th → 87th 3.5 82% 8.7 / 6.4 367*
10 Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 Tufts University Jumbos 8 6/6 314* 293 -21 89th → 86th 0.2 63% 9.7 / 8.8 296*
11 Dan Nickerson '15 Tufts University Jumbos 16 6/6 349* 285 -64 94th → 84th 1.7 82% 10.2 / 7.7 337*
12 Amanda Sommi '16 Tufts University Jumbos 9 6/6 233* 249 +16 74th → 78th 0.1 39% 10.5 / 11.3 233*
13 Will Pelleteri '12 Tufts University Jumbos 6 6/6 169* 230 +61 61st → 74th 1.0 32% 11.8 / 13.1 224*
14 Massimo Soriano '12 Tufts University Jumbos 4 6/6 336* 228 -108 92nd → 73rd 5.0 93% 12.5 / 8.1 278*
15 Albert Nichols '13 Tufts University Jumbos 11 6/6 192* 134 -59 66th → 52nd 0.8 56% 13.2 / 12.5 141*
15 Charles Proctor '14 Tufts University Jumbos 14 6/6 263* 257 -6 80th → 79th 0.0 82% 13.2 / 10.5 263*
17 Renee Gagne '12 Tufts University Jumbos 7 6/6 189n* 232 +43 66th → 74th 0.6 54% 13.3 / 12.3 189*
18 Jason Majane '08 Tufts University Jumbos 1 6/6 96n* 101 +5 44th → 45th 0.0 64% 16.2 / 14.4 96*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →