Dartmouth College '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 (fleet 3.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–12 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 17–12 against 17.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.36 | 1.93 | 8–8 | 9.6 | −0.43 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.14 | 2.80 | 9–4 | 7.4 | +0.66 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 3.37 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.3 | 3.38 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 3.48 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.0 | 3.38 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 4.11 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.7 | 3.34 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 3.91 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 15.0 | 2.03 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 2.65 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.4 | 3.68 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 3.31 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 3.31 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 4.40 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.3 | 3.02 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | 2.77 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.9 | 1.74 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 5.5 | 3.67 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 8.0 | 2.66 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 3.52 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 3.09 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
