Boston College '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 2.28 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.085 rating points from 169 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 35–36 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 4–6 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 6–6 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 2–5 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 8–5 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 15–14 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (71 matches) the record is 35–36 against 33.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.65 | 2.34 | 4–6 | 4.7 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 3.57 | 3.33 | 6–6 | 6.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | crew | 2.56 | 1.51 | 2–5 | 3.6 | −1.06 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 3.48 | 4.12 | 8–5 | 6.3 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.57 | 3.79 | 9–2 | 7.0 | +1.22 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 1.77 | 2.01 | 6–12 | 5.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | A, C | 4 | 6.2 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 6.2 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 8.9 | — |
| Central | Crew | A | 12 | 6.3 | — |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 9.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 6.6 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 9.0 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 10.5 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 3.0 | — |
| FJ Invitational | Crew | B | 5 | 2.6 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Crew | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 4.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 9.2 | — |
| BC Central Series | Crew | B | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 12.6 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 8.3 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 12 | 7.3 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Crew | C | 8 | 12.5 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Crew | A | 16 | 8.5 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Crew | B | 5 | 7.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
