University of South Florida '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.22 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.083 rating points from 275 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–24 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 9–10 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 15–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 24–24 against 22.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 1.77 | 5–5 | 5.9 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.32 | 1.47 | 4–5 | 5.4 | −0.86 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.10 | 2.73 | 9–7 | 6.7 | +0.63 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 2.60 | 6–7 | 4.4 | +0.62 | 0.7 | 23% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.2 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 4.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 10.8 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Crew | A, B | 11 | 9.4 | — |
| SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Central Series Two | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 1.93 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.0 | 2.02 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Crew | A | 11 | 11.8 | — |
| SAISA Women's Open Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 2.05 |
| SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships | Crew | A | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Crew | A | 16 | 11.4 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 1.51 |
| SAISA South Point #4 | Crew | B | 6 | 2.7 | — |
| SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.4 | 1.60 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 15.5 | 2.07 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.9 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.8 | 1.61 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.4 | 2.28 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Crew | B | 7 | 14.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 10.9 | 2.36 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 13.4 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 5.8 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 14.7 | — |
| SAISA Women's Championships Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.5 | 1.94 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 13.2 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 13.5 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Crew | A | 17 | 8.8 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.7 | 2.09 |
| SAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Champs Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 6.1 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | 1.54 |
| SAISA Open | Crew | B | 12 | 7.1 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.2 | 1.29 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 8.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Delaney Brown |  Oxbridge Academy |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
