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Duplin Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 10–0
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 7–3
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5–5
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4–6
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5–5
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4–6
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3–6
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,135 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 39 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.614 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.33 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 18% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		58.22
school +0.12		Rachel Foster / Maxine De Havenon 2.51
Olivia Belda / Annabelle Hutchinson
Sophie Hibben / Emma Montgomery 2.92 8–0
Sophie Hibben / Abigayle Konys 3.03 2–0		57%10–0 (100%)+4.3
2Boston College
Eagles		19.22
school +0.24		Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 3.15
Emma Batcher / Caroline Rochford
Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.54		79%7–3 (70%)−0.9
3Boston University
Terriers		28.71
school −0.10		Allison Cahn / Megan Blagden 2.60
Maia Agerup / Emily Croteau 3.38
Grace Mooradian / Hannah Davis 2.80		69%5–5 (50%)−1.9
4University of Rhode Island
Rams		76.63
school −0.41		Delaney Bamford / Taylor Borges 2.73
Rebecca Read / Sage Walters 2.35
Meghan Haviland / Cecilia Schneider		21%4–6 (40%)+1.9
5University of South Florida
Bulls		37.98
school +0.12		Delaney Brown / Samantha Kappaz 2.20
Marina Barzaghi / Darby Capellin 3.16
Kathryn Bornarth / Rachel Yannelli 2.47		59%5–5 (50%)−0.9
6Tufts University
Jumbos		67.12
school +0.10, home +0.37		Abbie Carlson / Taylor Hart
Lera Anders / Jessica Friedman
Talia Toland / Ann Sheridan 2.68		37%4–6 (40%)+0.3
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		48.08Dana Haig / Brooke Mcgoldrick 2.75
Annie Hughes / Noa Yoder 2.99 2–6
Lulu Russell / Isabelle Yen 2.32 3–4
Lulu Russell / Elizabeth Obermaier 2.39 0–2
Annie Hughes / Elizabeth Obermaier 3.04 1–0		58%3–6 (33%)−2.2
8Northeastern University
Huskies		86.20
school +0.06		Carolyn Corbet / Kelley Phippen 2.49
Victoria Pajak / Coleen Ross
Morgan Termaat / Bridget Maguire		18%1–8 (11%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Brown University8.2211.2210–05.7≥+3.008.5<1%
4University of Rhode Island6.637.724–62.1+1.091.612%
6Tufts University7.127.264–63.7+0.140.056%
5University of South Florida7.987.555–55.9−0.430.384%
2Boston College9.228.687–37.9−0.530.487%
8Northeastern University6.205.601–81.6−0.600.385%
3Boston University8.717.735–56.9−0.981.496%
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.086.873–65.2−1.221.998%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Rachel FosterBrown University2.515.5110–05.7≥+3.008.5<1%
Sophie HibbenBrown University2.925.9210–05.7≥+3.008.5<1%
Olivia BeldaBrown University2.405.4010–05.7≥+3.008.5<1%
Abbie CarlsonTufts University1.831.974–63.7+0.140.056%
Isabella LoosbrockBoston College3.152.627–37.9−0.530.487%
Carolyn CorbetNortheastern University2.491.881–81.6−0.600.385%
Allison CahnBoston University2.601.615–56.9−0.981.496%
Grace MooradianBoston University2.801.825–56.9−0.981.496%
Annie HughesMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.991.773–65.2−1.221.998%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
21Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNortheastern University88%
22Tufts UniversityBoston University14%upset
23Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island81%
24Boston CollegeUniversity of South Florida78%
25Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology66%
26Brown UniversityNortheastern University87%
27Tufts UniversityUniversity of South Florida27%upset
28Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island93%
29Brown UniversityBoston University36%upset
210Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of South Florida52%
211University of Rhode IslandNortheastern University60%
212Boston CollegeTufts University90%
213Brown UniversityUniversity of South Florida55%
214University of Rhode IslandBoston University11%upset
215Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University72%
216Boston CollegeNortheastern University95%
217University of South FloridaUniversity of Rhode Island79%
218Brown UniversityTufts University75%
219Boston UniversityNortheastern University92%
220Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology76%
221University of Rhode IslandTufts University37%upset
222University of South FloridaNortheastern University85%
223Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology53%
224Boston UniversityBoston College38%upset
225Tufts UniversityNortheastern University72%
226University of Rhode IslandMassachusetts Institute of Technology19%upset
227Boston UniversityUniversity of South Florida68%
228Brown UniversityBoston College29%upset
429University of South FloridaNortheastern University85%
430University of South FloridaTufts University68%
431University of South FloridaMassachusetts Institute of Technology48%upset
432Northeastern UniversityTufts University27%upset
433Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology30%upset
434Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island84%
435Boston CollegeBoston University62%
436Boston CollegeUniversity of Rhode Island93%
437Brown UniversityBoston University40%upset
438Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island88%
439Brown UniversityBoston College30%upset

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsEaglesTerriersRamsBullsJumbosEngineersHuskies
Brown University Bears7–0✕WWWWWWW
Boston College Eagles5–2L✕LWWWWW
Boston University Terriers4–3LW✕LWLWW
University of Rhode Island Rams4–3LLW✕LWWW
University of South Florida Bulls2–5LLLW✕LLW
Tufts University Jumbos3–4LLWLW✕LW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–4LLLLWW✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BearsEaglesTerriersRamsBullsJumbosEngineersHuskies
Brown University Bears3–0✕WWW––––
Boston College Eagles2–1L✕WW––––
Boston University Terriers1–2LL✕W––––
University of Rhode Island Rams0–3LLL✕––––
University of South Florida Bulls3–0––––✕WWW
Tufts University Jumbos1–2––––L✕WL
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers0–2––––LL✕–
Northeastern University Huskies1–1––––LW–✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-5
2 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
3 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
4 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
5 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
6 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
8 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
9 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6
11 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-4-6
12 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
13 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
14 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
17 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
19 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
20 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
21 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
22 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
24 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-5
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
26 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
27 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
28 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
29 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-5-6
30 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
31 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
32 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
33 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
34 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
35 Boston College Eagles 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
36 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
37 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
38 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
39 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/24/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 38%  ·  Pressure 1015.3 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.6 kn
Gusts to 25.3 kn
From WSW (256°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1015.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →