Northeastern University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 42.64 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.079 rating points from 267 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.43 (fleet 0.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 21–45 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 10–10 |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | — | 5–22 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 3–9 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 3–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (66 matches) the record is 21–45 against 20.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | crew | 2.43 | 3.78 | 10–10 | 5.4 | +1.35 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2–8 | 1.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.19 | 1.59 | 1–8 | 1.6 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | crew | 2.84 | 1.76 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −1.08 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.48 | 1.06 | 3–9 | 6.0 | −1.41 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | crew | 2.02 | 2.57 | 3–4 | 2.2 | +0.55 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Crew | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 9.8 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 11.2 | — |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 15.2 | — |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Crew | A, B | 14 | 8.2 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 9.3 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 7.8 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 10 | 10.4 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 8.7 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | B | 7 | 5.6 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Crew | B | 9 | 9.9 | — |
| It's The Crew's Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | C | 7 | 10.7 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Crew | B | 7 | 3.1 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Series | Crew | A | 8 | 10.4 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.3 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 13.1 | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 13.3 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 13.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 13.1 | — |
| Professor Noringer | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.74 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | B | 11 | 8.9 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 10.2 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.7 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | B | 10 | 8.0 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 6.9 | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 8.1 | — |
| FJ Invitational | Crew | B | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| Central Series6 | Crew | A | 3 | 4.7 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | A | 12 | 9.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
