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Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 17 17
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 26 26
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 36 36
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 45 45
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 46 46
6 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 51 51
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 56 56
8 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 1 63 63
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 67 67
10 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 69 69
11 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 73 73
12 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 2 76 76
13 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 77 77
14 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 93 93
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 1 3 4 2 4 2 1 17 Charles Lindsay '21
Maaya Prasad '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 6 1 5 1 7 4 2 26 Julia Wyatt '21
Elizabeth Obermaier '21
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 2 4 2 3 6 10 9 36 Carter Brock '22
Jack Denker '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 4 6 3 5 12 7 8 45 Noa Yoder '19
Michelle He '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 3 2 1 8 10 11 11 46 Fiona Mckellar '20
Veronika Silkin '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 9 5 7 6 8 9 7 51 Andrew Reynolds '19
Victoria Kyle '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 8 7 8 4 13 6 10 56 David Morejon '20
Abigail Lee '20
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 1 5 8 6 7 11 13 13 63 Jackie Schneider '20
Caroline Ferguson '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS 1 1 5 67 Adrian Van Der Wal '22
Jon Ewing '21
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 2 3 4 69 Caleb Niles '22
Coleen Ross '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS 5 5 3 73 Carolyn Corbet '21
Kelley Phippen '22
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 2 7 9 9 9 14 14 14 76 Mae Harrington '19
Julia Becker '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 3 8 6 77 Donal Ryan '19
Ellen Reagan '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 9 12 12 93 Santiago Hirschmann '23
Elizabeth Lonergan '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints 15555555
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints 24444444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 18888888
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 21111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 318181818181818
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 46666666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 57777777
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 111111111111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 219191919191919
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 320202020202020
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 421212121212121
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 522222222222222
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 614141414141414
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards17171717171717

Conditions — 04/25/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From ENE (73°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.34 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →