Boston University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 76.75 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.093 rating points from 120 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–13 (61%) as crew 25–42 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 10–12 |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 15–30 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 45–55 against 48.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 3.07 | 2.57 | 10–12 | 12.1 | −0.51 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.77 | 3.31 | 12–7 | 10.1 | +0.54 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.80 | 1.82 | 5–5 | 6.9 | −0.98 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.32 | 1.76 | 2–13 | 5.7 | −1.56 | 3.8 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | crew | 3.36 | 3.35 | 4–6 | 4.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 3.33 | 4.38 | 7–5 | 4.6 | +1.05 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | crew | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.51 | 3.14 | 3–1 | 2.6 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 55% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 6.7 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 8.8 | — |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 6.2 | — |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 8.3 | — |
| Harry Anderson | Crew | A | 14 | 7.2 | — |
| Coed Showcase Qualifier B | Crew | B | 16 | 4.4 | — |
| Coed Showcase Championship | Crew | B | 9 | 4.1 | — |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 7.5 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 3.04 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.7 | 3.76 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.7 | 2.49 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.5 | 2.66 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.3 | 2.97 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 3.04 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.1 | 2.72 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 3.51 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.4 | 3.19 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.7 | 3.80 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 2.19 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 3.60 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.4 | 2.94 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 3.56 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 3.41 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 7 | 11.4 | — |
| Navy Spring | Crew | A | 12 | 9.3 | — |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | A | 10 | 5.1 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.5 | 3.21 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.9 | 3.40 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.4 | 3.14 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 3.49 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | 1.83 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.9 | 2.76 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.9 | 3.48 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
