Massachusetts Institute of Technology '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 67.34 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.103 rating points from 60 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.93 (fleet 2.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–56 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–13 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 8–7 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 17–18 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 8–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (91 matches) the record is 35–56 against 40.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 2.39 | 1.96 | 2–13 | 2.8 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 3.51 | 8–7 | 4.0 | +1.28 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.32 | 1.66 | 12–8 | 14.4 | −0.67 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 0.72 | 5–10 | 10.0 | −1.71 | 6.2 | >99% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.26 | 3.01 | 2–7 | 1.1 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 1.10 | 3–6 | 5.2 | −1.22 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.22 | 2.08 | 3–5 | 3.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 9.4 | — |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 2.69 |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 10 | 3.1 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 8.6 | — |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 14 | 7.3 | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 3.20 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.7 | 2.37 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 2.47 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.9 | 2.97 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 1.72 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 3.13 |
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 2.60 |
| Tufts University Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.6 | 0.27 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A, B | 9 | 9.0 | — |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 2.66 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 2.00 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lulu Russell |  Tabor Academy |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
