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Norman G. Reid Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 14–1
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 10–5
3 Boston College Boston College Eagles 9–6
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 8–7
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4–11
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 15,774 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.522 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 71% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Harvard University
Crimson		18.78Jonas Nelle / Carolyn Wang 2.98
Eric Hansen / Ariel Wang 2.33
Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee		83%14–1 (93%)+1.5
2Brown University
Bears		27.74
school +0.23		Jed Bell / Savannah Young 2.85
Connor Macken / Jacqueline Rice
Leyton Borcherding / Helen Horangic		60%10–5 (67%)+1.0
3Boston College
Eagles		37.57
school +0.25, home +0.35		Nick Budington / Ginny Alex
John (Jack) Plavan / Sara Schumann
Chip Kreuzkamp / Lourdes Gallo 1.75		56%9–6 (60%)+0.7
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		66.42
school −0.17		Emily Scherer / Brianna Ryan
Lucy Brock / Julius Heitkoetter
Lulu Russell / Sophie Yang 2.23		26%8–7 (53%)+4.0
5Tufts University
Jumbos 1		56.87
school +0.17		Patrick Mulcahy / Devin Hart 2.42
Bryan Trammell / Adelaide Straub
Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam		37%4–11 (27%)−1.5
6Tufts University
Jumbos 2		46.89
school +0.17		Abbie Carlson / Mallory Hood 2.38
Chloe Holder / Paige Tyler 2.07
Annika Fedde / Alessandra Torres 2.14		38%0–15 (0%)−5.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers6.427.708–74.0+1.283.92%
1Harvard University Crimson8.789.8414–112.5+1.071.025%
2Brown University Bears7.748.0910–59.0+0.350.339%
3Boston College Eagles7.577.789–68.4+0.210.147%
5Tufts University Jumbos 16.876.334–115.5−0.530.688%
6Tufts University Jumbos 26.893.890–155.7≤−3.0010.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jonas NelleHarvard University2.984.0414–112.5+1.071.025%
Eric HansenHarvard University2.333.3914–112.5+1.071.025%
Jed BellBrown University2.853.1910–59.0+0.350.339%
John (Jack) PlavanBoston College2.332.549–68.4+0.210.147%
Chip KreuzkampBoston College1.751.969–68.4+0.210.147%
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.421.894–115.5−0.530.688%
Bryan TrammellTufts University1.961.424–115.5−0.530.688%
Connor RosowTufts University1.801.264–115.5−0.530.688%
Abbie CarlsonTufts University2.38-0.620–155.7≤−3.0010.4>99%
Annika FeddeTufts University2.14-0.860–155.7≤−3.0010.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears77%
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston College Eagles17%upset
13Tufts University Jumbos 1Tufts University Jumbos 240%upset
14Harvard University CrimsonBoston College Eagles77%
15Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 268%
16Tufts University Jumbos 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers61%
17Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 287%
18Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 170%
19Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears20%upset
110Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 267%
111Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 172%
112Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers92%
113Boston College EaglesBrown University Bears46%upset
114Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 238%upset
115Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 188%
216Brown University BearsHarvard University Crimson26%upset
217Boston College EaglesMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers76%
218Tufts University Jumbos 1Tufts University Jumbos 249%upset
219Harvard University CrimsonBoston College Eagles77%
220Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 270%
221Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 139%upset
222Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 287%
223Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 166%
224Brown University BearsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers78%
225Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 266%
226Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 170%
227Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers91%
228Brown University BearsBoston College Eagles55%
229Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 241%upset
230Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 186%
331Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears73%
332Boston College EaglesMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers74%
333Tufts University Jumbos 1Tufts University Jumbos 252%
334Harvard University CrimsonBoston College Eagles77%
335Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 271%
336Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 139%upset
337Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 287%
338Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 164%
339Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears22%upset
340Boston College EaglesTufts University Jumbos 266%
341Brown University BearsTufts University Jumbos 169%
342Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers90%
343Brown University BearsBoston College Eagles56%
344Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersTufts University Jumbos 242%upset
345Harvard University CrimsonTufts University Jumbos 185%

Round 1

TeamRec.CrimsonBearsEaglesEngineers12
Harvard University Crimson5–0✕WWWWW
Brown University Bears2–3L✕LLWW
Boston College Eagles3–2LW✕LWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–2LWW✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 12–8LLLL✕✕
Tufts University Jumbos 22–8LLLL✕✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CrimsonBearsEaglesEngineers12
Harvard University Crimson4–1✕LWWWW
Brown University Bears5–0W✕WWWW
Boston College Eagles3–2LL✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–3LLL✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 11–9LLLL✕✕
Tufts University Jumbos 21–9LLLL✕✕

Round 3

TeamRec.CrimsonBearsEaglesEngineers12
Harvard University Crimson5–0✕WWWWW
Brown University Bears3–2L✕WLWW
Boston College Eagles3–2LL✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–2LWL✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos 11–9LLLL✕✕
Tufts University Jumbos 21–9LLLL✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-5-6
4 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
5 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-6
6 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
7 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6
8 Boston College Eagles 1-3-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-4-5
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-3-6
10 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6
12 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
13 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-5-6
15 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-5-6
16 Brown University Bears 3-4-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 DSQ
17 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-5-6
19 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
20 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6
21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 2-5-6
22 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-6
23 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6
24 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
25 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 1-5-6
26 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-5-6
27 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
28 Brown University Bears 2-5-6 def. Boston College Eagles 1-3-4 DSQ
29 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-5
30 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6
31 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
32 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
33 Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6
34 Harvard University Crimson 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
35 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-6
36 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 1-3-6 DSQ
37 Harvard University Crimson 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 2-3-6
38 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6
39 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-6
40 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 4-5-6
41 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-5
42 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
43 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
44 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2 3-4-5
45 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1 3-4-6

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1013.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →