Boston University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 83.96 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 20 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–22 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 18–13 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 27–22 against 21.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.85 | 4.05 | 12–6 | 7.0 | +1.20 | 4.3 | 1% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 3.23 | 6–7 | 4.9 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 2.50 | 9–9 | 9.3 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.7 | 3.51 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.4 | 3.57 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.3 | 3.82 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.3 | 3.40 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.8 | 3.88 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 3.43 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A, B | 4 | 7.0 | 3.68 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.8 | 3.34 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 6.8 | 3.93 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.8 | 3.48 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 3.33 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.9 | 3.84 |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Crew | B | 8 | 6.4 | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Crew | B | 6 | 5.7 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.8 | 2.98 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.83 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.4 | 3.65 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.7 | 4.56 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.6 | 2.86 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 4.05 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.1 | 3.77 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 2.92 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.4 | 2.69 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 4.54 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.4 | 2.93 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 3.53 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.2 | 4.12 |
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | 1.60 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | 3.50 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 2.75 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 4.51 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.0 | 2.84 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.6 | 1.98 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.8 | 2.75 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 2.55 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.1 | 3.47 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 3.11 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.0 | 2.31 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.4 | 3.12 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.2 | 1.71 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 2.67 |
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.9 | 1.91 |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.8 | 1.00 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 2.21 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.6 | 1.82 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Lydia Grasberger |  Providence College |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
