Dartmouth College '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.89 (fleet 4.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 57–37 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 10–7 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 15–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 23–17 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 57–37 against 60.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.46 | 2.34 | 10–7 | 13.2 | −1.12 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 3.12 | 3.13 | 14–5 | 14.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.40 | 2.22 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.17 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.93 | 2.49 | 8–8 | 9.6 | −0.43 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.12 | 3.13 | 6–5 | 6.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.66 | 9–4 | 7.4 | +0.66 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 3.23 | 9–5 | 7.9 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.4 | 4.12 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 4.19 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 3.89 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.7 | 3.66 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.4 | 5.06 |
| Coed Showcase Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 4.38 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 3.85 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 74% | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.3 | 4.22 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 3.72 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.1 | 4.05 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.2 | 2.75 |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.1 | 3.11 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 4.16 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.5 | 4.42 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 4.62 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.4 | 3.86 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.3 | 3.19 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.2 | 3.23 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.4 | 4.06 |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.6 | 5.32 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 3.70 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.9 | 4.15 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.1 | 2.67 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 4.74 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.4 | 3.45 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 3.48 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.6 | 3.51 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 3.79 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 3.92 |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 3.29 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 3.78 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 2.46 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.0 | 5.52 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 3.03 |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 2.47 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 7.8 | 3.23 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.31 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.3 | 3.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
