Massachusetts Institute of Technology '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.98 (fleet 4.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 68–55 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 13–12 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 36–23 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 19–20 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 67–54 against 70.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.43 | 2.54 | 10–7 | 12.8 | −0.89 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.56 | 2.25 | 3–5 | 5.1 | −1.32 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 3.25 | 3.40 | 13–6 | 12.5 | +0.15 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.34 | 3.72 | 9–9 | 7.5 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 4.41 | 14–4 | 10.1 | +1.26 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.18 | 0.18 | 0–4 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.93 | 2.62 | 9–9 | 10.3 | −0.31 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 0.82 | 2–8 | 6.3 | −2.19 | 6.5 | >99% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 4.59 | 7–2 | 4.2 | +1.92 | 3.6 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 4.18 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Qualifier A | Skipper | B | 18 | 4.9 | 4.68 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 4.68 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 4.38 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.5 | 3.71 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.4 | 4.42 |
| Coed Showcase Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.8 | 4.43 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.4 | 4.05 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.67 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.5 | 3.26 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.2 | 4.06 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.5 | 1.96 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.0 | 3.59 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 4.03 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.2 | 4.42 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 3.72 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 3.63 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.5 | 4.53 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.0 | 3.93 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 4.57 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.1 | 3.56 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 3.02 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.1 | 4.43 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.2 | 4.24 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.2 | 5.00 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.4 | 3.57 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.8 | 2.77 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 2.32 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 2.45 |
| Invite at Harvard | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 2.44 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 3.22 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 4.19 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 7.8 | 3.36 |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 1.80 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 3.69 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Emily Haig |  Southern Regional High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
