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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 50
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 55
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 59
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 83
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 99
6 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 154
7 Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks 159
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 175
9 Saints Saints Saints 197
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 1 1 1 8 2 4 17 Julien Guiot '18
Jacob Whitney '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers A 2 2 12 2 1 2 21 Emily Haig '21
Joseph Mastrandrea '21
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 3 5 4 7 3 3 25 Spencer Cartwright '22
Rachel Holick '22
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 5 8 2 1 4 5 25 Leif Bergstrom '21
Riley Read '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 9 3 7 4 8 7 38 Bram Brakman '21
Margaret Veltri '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers B 12 10 3 3 9 1 38 Joseph Chamberlin '19
Rebecca Nelson '21
Brown University Brown University Bears B 8 6 6 6 6 8 40 Aryaman Dutta '22
Jack Papetti '21
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 6 7 8 9 5 6 41 Jonas Nelle '22
Zennie Wey '20
Brown University Brown University Bears A 7 4 5 5 11 11 43 Gabriel Hannon '20
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks A 10 9 9 11 7 10 56
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 4 13 10 10 12 9 58 Juan Crestanello '20
Renwick Wilson '18
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 11 14 11 12 10 12 70 Sarah Herde '21
Christina Fatica '20
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 14 15 16 13 13 13 84 Julie Self '18 [1-6]
Eric Feng '20 [1-3]
Jason Ross '19 [4-6]
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 13 12 15 15 16 16 87 Autumn Becker '20
Mary O’Hara '21
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 15 11 13 DNF 15 15 88 Julianna Bennett '21
Sofia Lombardo '21
Saints Saints Saints B 16 16 14 16 14 14 90
Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks B 17 17 17 14 DNF DNS 103
Saints Saints Saints A 18 18 18 17 DNF 17 107
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats112233
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22111818
SaintsSaints Saints334455
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson443322
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers556677
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats9910101111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks665544
SeahawksSeahawks Seahawks778899
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos887766

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats10109988
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears111112121313
SaintsSaints Saints121211111010
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson131314141515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers141413131212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats181817171616
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks151516161717
SeahawksSeahawks Seahawks161615151414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1717181811

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Dense drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From ENE (64°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine0.7 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1022.5 hPa Rain0.35 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →