Tufts University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.19 (fleet 3.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–19 (50%) as crew 4–3 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 16–13 | 4–3 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 23–22 against 24.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 0.64 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.31 | 2.98 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 2.01 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | crew | 3.09 | 1.88 | 4–3 | 5.7 | −1.21 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.10 | 3.18 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 2.98 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.3 | 3.21 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 14.8 | — |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 3.32 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 4.26 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Coast Guard J/70 Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 4.8 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.8 | 2.69 |
| J70 Tuesday Invite - 1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.0 | — |
| Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | -0.68 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A, B | 2 | 3.0 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.8 | 1.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
