Wood Trophy

HostHarvard
Date03/10/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	12–5
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	12–5
3	Northeastern University	Huskies	10–7
4	Cornell University	Big Red	8–9
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–7
6	University of Vermont	Catamounts	6–8
7	Fordham University	Rams	5–9
8	Brown University	Bears	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,751 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 62 matches (52%) with a log-loss of 0.750 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.92 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	4	7.86 school −0.15, home +0.39	Dylan Farrell / Lena Episalla 2.46 Nicholas Karnovsky / Jessica Williams 2.88 Andrew Puopolo / Iulianna Taritsa 2.13	52%	12–5 (71%)	+3.2
2	Tufts University Jumbos	1	9.23 school +0.10	Jack Bitney / Lara Dienemann 2.98 Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 3.02 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.08 8–2 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Bram Brakman 3.09 4–3	84%	12–5 (71%)	−2.2
3	Northeastern University Huskies	7	7.14 school −0.19	Jackson Hamilton / Jacqueline Berlin 2.79 Kurran Singh / Connor O'Neill 2.17 Kyle Riggs / Jon Ewing 2.23	33%	10–7 (59%)	+4.3
4	Cornell University Big Red	5	7.49 school +0.20	Luke Andersen / Patricia Corujo 2.50 Phillip Schofield / Ana Schonander Alex Fowkes / Ethan Andersen	42%	8–9 (47%)	+0.8
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	2	8.25 school −0.21	Dakota Northrup / Caroline Rocchio 3.01 Luke Ingalls / Ellis Havelock 2.43 Brendan Read / Lauren Richards 2.90	63%	7–7 (50%)	−1.8
6	University of Vermont Catamounts	6	7.27 school −0.09	Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.59 Jan Kite-Powell / Nellie Stidham 2.73 Vincent Yannelli / Isabella Arnaboldi 1.95	38%	6–8 (43%)	+0.7
7	Fordham University Rams	8	6.84	Brad Seferian / Makena Masterson 2.52 Thomas Capozzi / Brigid Murphy Eduardo Mintzias / Jacqueline Tobin	28%	5–9 (36%)	+1.0
8	Brown University Bears	3	8.03 school +0.28	Franco Bilik / Jack Papetti 2.75 Sophie Hibben / Maxine De Havenon 2.41 Nathan Housberg / Elizabeth Rolfes 2.40	57%	2–12 (14%)	−6.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Northeastern University	7.14	8.30	10–7	5.7	+1.16	3.7	2%
1	Harvard University	7.86	8.77	12–5	8.8	+0.92	2.0	8%
7	Fordham University	6.84	7.21	5–9	3.9	+0.38	0.3	35%
6	University of Vermont	7.27	7.50	6–8	5.3	+0.22	0.1	45%
4	Cornell University	7.49	7.70	8–9	7.2	+0.22	0.1	43%
5	University of Rhode Island	8.25	7.65	7–7	8.8	−0.60	0.8	91%
2	Tufts University	9.23	8.46	12–5	14.2	−0.78	1.3	95%
8	Brown University	8.03	5.76	2–12	8.0	−2.27	8.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kurran Singh	Northeastern University	2.17	3.33	10–7	5.7	+1.16	3.7	2%
Kyle Riggs	Northeastern University	2.23	3.40	10–7	5.7	+1.16	3.7	2%
Andrew Puopolo	Harvard University	2.13	3.05	12–5	8.8	+0.92	2.0	8%
Eduardo Mintzias	Fordham University	2.40	2.77	5–9	3.9	+0.38	0.3	35%
Vincent Yannelli	University of Vermont	1.95	2.17	6–8	5.3	+0.22	0.1	45%
Alex Fowkes	Cornell University	2.00	2.21	8–9	7.2	+0.22	0.1	43%
Franco Bilik	Brown University	2.75	0.49	2–12	8.0	−2.27	8.9	>99%
Sophie Hibben	Brown University	2.41	0.15	2–12	8.0	−2.27	8.9	>99%
Nathan Housberg	Brown University	2.40	0.13	2–12	8.0	−2.27	8.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Northeastern University	Harvard University	33%	upset
1	2	Fordham University	Tufts University	6%	upset
1	3	Cornell University	University of Rhode Island	31%	upset
1	4	Brown University	University of Vermont	66%
1	5	Harvard University	Fordham University	77%
1	6	Cornell University	Northeastern University	58%
1	7	Tufts University	University of Vermont	88%
1	8	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	43%	upset
1	9	Fordham University	Cornell University	32%	upset
1	10	Harvard University	University of Vermont	64%
1	11	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	76%
1	12	Tufts University	Brown University	78%
1	13	Cornell University	University of Vermont	55%
1	14	University of Rhode Island	Fordham University	81%
1	15	Harvard University	Tufts University	19%	upset
1	16	Northeastern University	Brown University	29%	upset
1	17	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	73%
1	18	Tufts University	Cornell University	86%
1	19	Northeastern University	Fordham University	58%
1	20	Harvard University	Brown University	46%	upset
1	21	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	27%	upset
1	22	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	54%
1	23	Harvard University	Cornell University	59%
1	24	Fordham University	Brown University	23%	upset
1	25	Tufts University	Northeastern University	89%
1	26	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	40%	upset
1	27	Fordham University	University of Vermont	40%	upset
1	28	Cornell University	Brown University	36%	upset
2	29	Northeastern University	Harvard University	33%	upset
2	30	Tufts University	Fordham University	91%
2	31	Cornell University	University of Rhode Island	32%	upset
2	32	University of Vermont	Brown University	32%	upset
2	33	Harvard University	Fordham University	72%
2	34	Northeastern University	Cornell University	41%	upset
2	35	University of Vermont	Tufts University	12%	upset
2	36	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	55%
2	37	Cornell University	Fordham University	63%
2	38	Harvard University	University of Vermont	64%
2	39	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	75%
2	40	Tufts University	Brown University	76%
2	41	University of Vermont	Cornell University	45%	upset
2	42	University of Rhode Island	Fordham University	79%
2	43	Harvard University	Tufts University	20%	upset
2	44	Northeastern University	Brown University	28%	upset
2	45	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	27%	upset
2	46	Tufts University	Cornell University	85%
2	47	Northeastern University	Fordham University	54%
2	48	Harvard University	Brown University	44%	upset
2	49	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	72%
2	50	Northeastern University	University of Vermont	46%	upset
2	51	Cornell University	Harvard University	41%	upset
2	52	Fordham University	Brown University	25%	upset
2	53	Tufts University	Northeastern University	89%
2	54	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	40%	upset
2	55	University of Vermont	Fordham University	57%
2	56	Cornell University	Brown University	36%	upset
2	57	Tufts University	Northeastern University	89%
2	58	Harvard University	Cornell University	59%
2	59	Tufts University	Cornell University	84%
2	60	Northeastern University	Harvard University	33%	upset
2	61	Northeastern University	Cornell University	41%	upset
2	62	Tufts University	Harvard University	79%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Jumbos	Huskies	Red	Rams	Catamounts	Rams	Bears
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–4	W	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–3	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	L
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Jumbos	Huskies	Red	Rams	Catamounts	Rams	Bears
Harvard University Crimson	6–4	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–2	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	7–3	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–6	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	5–2	L	W	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
3	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
4	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
5	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
6	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
7	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
8	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
9	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
10	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
11	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
12	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
13	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
14	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5 DSQ
15	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
16	Huskies	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
17	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
19	Huskies	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
20	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
21	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
22	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
23	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
24	Rams	3-4-5	def.	Bears	1-2-6 DSQ
25	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
26	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
27	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
28	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
29	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
30	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
31	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
32	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
33	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
34	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
35	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
36	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
37	Big Red	1-4-6	def.	Rams	2-3-5 DSQ
38	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
39	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
40	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
42	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
43	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
44	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
45	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
46	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
47	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
48	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
49	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
50	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
51	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
52	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
53	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
54	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
55	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
56	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
57	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
58	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
59	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
60	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
61	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
62	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Puopolo '19 Dylan Farrell '18 Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Iulianna Taritsa '20 Lena Episalla '19 Jessica Williams '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 Jack Bitney '19	Ian Morgan '19 Bram Brakman '21 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Lara Dienemann '18
Northeastern University	Huskies	Jackson Hamilton '19 Kurran Singh '19 Kyle Riggs '21	Jacqueline Berlin '19 Connor O'Neill '19 Jon Ewing '21
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Fowkes '20 Luke Andersen '18 Phillip Schofield '21	Ethan Andersen '20 Patricia Corujo '21 Ana Schonander '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Brendan Read '19 Dakota Northrup '19 Luke Ingalls '21	Lauren Richards '19 Caroline Rocchio '20 Ellis Havelock '18
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Colin Richards '20 Jan Kite-Powell '19 Vincent Yannelli '19	Amanda Engeman '20 Nellie Stidham '21 Isabella Arnaboldi '21
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Eduardo Mintzias '21 Thomas Capozzi '19	Makena Masterson '19 Jacqueline Tobin '20 Brigid Murphy '20
Brown University	Bears	Franco Bilik '18 Nathan Housberg '19 Sophie Hibben '19	Jack Papetti '21 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Maxine De Havenon '19

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1007.3 hPa

Temperature

35°F

↑ 38°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.6 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1007.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu