University of Vermont '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.86 (fleet 2.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–53 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 7–14 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 21–35 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (82 matches) the record is 29–53 against 27.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.37 | 1.85 | 3–11 | 4.3 | −0.52 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.40 | 2.89 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 2.05 | 4–11 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | skipper | 2.10 | 2.78 | 10–10 | 7.6 | +0.69 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.12 | 1.38 | 1–6 | 1.8 | −0.74 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 1.95 | 2.17 | 6–8 | 5.3 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 3.80 | 1–4 | 0.2 | +1.87 | 1.3 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 3.04 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.8 | 2.44 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.6 | 2.03 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.5 | 2.34 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.1 | 2.85 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 13.4 | 2.26 |
| Staake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 2.67 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.26 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 8.9 | 2.75 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 14.6 | 1.36 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | 1.81 |
| 75th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 5.4 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.4 | 1.28 |
| NEISA J70 Two-Day Invite Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.3 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.52 |
| Alymers | Skipper | B | 16 | 2.2 | 2.92 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.0 | 2.04 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 2.49 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 2.53 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.9 | -0.65 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.9 | 1.90 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 2.19 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.05 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Providence College Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 1.69 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.1 | 2.21 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 6.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
