Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/25/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–4
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	10–4
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	10–4
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	9–5
5	George Washington University	Colonials	7–7
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–8
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–5
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	4–8
9	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	2–10
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 66 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.452 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.03 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	11.10 school +0.05	Peter Hogan / Sarah Barkley 3.22 Patrick Snow / Mary Robertson 4.00 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.79	65%	10–4 (71%)	+0.8
2	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.09 school +0.43	Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.19 Will La Dow / Kathryn Booker 3.91 Jacob Rosenberg / Sarah Placek 3.52	66%	10–4 (71%)	+0.7
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.73	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.68 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rebecca Fung 4.09 Aj Reiter / Meaghan Macrae 3.94	81%	10–4 (71%)	−1.3
4	College of Charleston Cougars	6	10.14 school +0.34	Jack Cusick / Chloe Dapp 3.82 6–4 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.18 5–4 Nicolas Muller / Liza Toppa 2.72 2–3 Christophe Killian / Liza Toppa 3.25 4–1 Nicolas Muller / Elizabeth Pemberton 2.72 4–1 Jack Cusick / Liza Toppa 3.75 3–1 Nicolas Muller / Chloe Dapp 2.84 3–1	46%	9–5 (64%)	+2.5
5	George Washington University Colonials	4	10.80	Brendan Shanahan / Andreea Rainey-Pace 3.90 6–7 Kai Friesecke / Mercedes Mcphee 3.76 7–4 Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.37 4–7 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.16 4–3	62%	7–7 (50%)	−1.7
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	10.11 school +0.50	Bradley Adam / Elizabeth Dennison 3.45 Jonathan Lutz / Julia Monro 3.00 Kyle Burgess / Shelby Jacobs 3.13	43%	6–8 (43%)	−0.0
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	9.93	Nathaniel Johansson / Alyssa Berger 3.30 Erik Weis / Mia Steck 3.18 Jack Mcgraw / Mary Amis 3.37	59%	7–5 (58%)	−0.1
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	8.29 school +0.20	Matthew Lyons / Marie Bergsund 2.68 Christian Filter / Nora Cullen Matt Safford / Isabelle Austin-Green	36%	4–8 (33%)	−0.3
9	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	8.02 home +0.24	John Lawless / Skye Miller 2.55 Andreas Adam / Macy Blakeley 2.04 0–8 Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.64 2–2 Kyle Comerford / Macy Blakeley 3.08 2–2 Arthur Libby / Timothy Montera 2.26 0–3 Kyle Comerford / Timothy Montera 3.15 0–3 Aidan Molesky / Timothy Montera 1.65 0–2	26%	2–10 (17%)	−1.1
10	University of Vermont Catamounts	10	6.52	Benjamin Craig / Emma Janson 2.47 Nate Peck / James Mccracken 2.08 Charles Hicks / Beth Carroll 0–7 Vincent Yannelli / Beth Carroll 1–4	5%	1–11 (8%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	College of Charleston	10.14	11.11	9–5	6.5	+0.96	1.8	10%
10	University of Vermont	6.52	7.17	1–11	0.6	+0.64	0.2	45%
1	U. S. Naval Academy	11.10	11.43	10–4	9.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
2	Stanford University	11.09	11.38	10–4	9.3	+0.28	0.1	46%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.11	10.10	6–8	6.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
7	Dartmouth College	9.93	9.88	7–5	7.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
8	Bowdoin College	8.29	8.07	4–8	4.3	−0.22	0.0	77%
3	Georgetown University	11.73	11.14	10–4	11.3	−0.58	0.6	90%
5	George Washington University	10.80	10.16	7–7	8.7	−0.64	0.8	91%
9	SUNY Maritime College	8.02	6.62	2–10	3.1	−1.40	1.0	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Vincent Yannelli	University of Vermont	1.93	3.80	1–4	0.2	+1.87	1.3	18%
Jack Cusick	College of Charleston	3.82	4.78	9–5	6.5	+0.96	1.8	10%
Nicolas Muller	College of Charleston	2.72	3.68	9–5	6.5	+0.96	1.8	10%
Benjamin Craig	University of Vermont	2.47	3.11	1–11	0.6	+0.64	0.2	45%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	4.00	4.32	10–4	9.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.79	4.12	10–4	9.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.19	3.48	10–4	9.3	+0.28	0.1	46%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.45	3.44	6–8	6.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.13	3.12	6–8	6.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Matthew Lyons	Bowdoin College	2.68	2.46	4–8	4.3	−0.22	0.0	77%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.94	3.36	10–4	11.3	−0.58	0.6	90%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.90	3.20	6–7	7.8	−0.71	0.9	93%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.64	2.68	2–2	2.4	−0.97	0.3	95%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.37	2.15	4–7	6.4	−1.23	2.1	98%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.55	1.15	2–10	3.1	−1.40	1.0	97%
Andreas Adam	SUNY Maritime College	2.04	-0.96	0–8	0.7	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Arthur Libby	SUNY Maritime College	2.26	-0.74	0–3	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%
Charles Hicks	University of Vermont	1.76	-1.24	0–7	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	49%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	3	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
1	4	College of Charleston	Stanford University	27%	upset
1	5	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	83%
1	6	Georgetown University	George Washington University	79%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	76%
1	8	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Vermont	98%
1	10	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	95%
1	11	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	12	George Washington University	College of Charleston	67%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Vermont	99%
1	14	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Bowdoin College	88%
1	16	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	55%
1	17	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	99%
1	18	George Washington University	Stanford University	49%	upset
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	20	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	85%
1	21	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	97%
1	22	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	76%
1	23	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
1	24	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Bowdoin College	94%
1	26	Stanford University	University of Vermont	99%
1	27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	28	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	87%
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	35%	upset
1	30	George Washington University	Bowdoin College	92%
1	31	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	32	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	95%
1	33	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	28%	upset
1	34	George Washington University	Dartmouth College	75%
1	35	Georgetown University	Bowdoin College	97%
1	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	65%
1	37	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
1	38	University of Vermont	George Washington University	2%	upset
1	39	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	17%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	83%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	83%
1	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	29%	upset
1	43	Stanford University	Georgetown University	35%	upset
1	44	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	97%
1	45	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	85%
4	61	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	87%
4	62	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	97%
4	63	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	86%
4	64	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	88%
4	65	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	95%
4	66	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	81%
6	46	Georgetown University	George Washington University	79%
6	47	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	50%
6	48	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
6	49	Georgetown University	Stanford University	65%
6	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	29%	upset
6	51	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	28%	upset
6	52	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
6	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	35%	upset
6	54	George Washington University	College of Charleston	65%
6	55	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
6	56	Stanford University	George Washington University	52%
6	57	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	82%
6	58	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	52%
6	59	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
6	60	Stanford University	College of Charleston	71%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Hoyas	Cougars	Colonials	Seahawks	Green	Bears	Privateers	Catamounts
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	W	W	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	6–3	W	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Green	Bears	Privateers	Catamounts
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–1	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Hoyas	Cougars	Colonials	Seahawks
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
2	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
3	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
4	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
7	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
8	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
9	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
11	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
12	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
16	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
18	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
20	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
21	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
24	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
27	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
28	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
30	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
33	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
34	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
35	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
36	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
38	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
39	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
40	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
43	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
44	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
45	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
61	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
62	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
63	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
64	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
65	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
66	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
47	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
48	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
50	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
51	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
53	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
54	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
56	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
57	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
59	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
60	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Patrick Snow '17 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Mary Robertson '17 Sarah Barkley '19
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Will La Dow '18	Sarah Placek '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Kathryn Booker '19
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Roger Dorr '18	Meaghan Macrae '18 Rebecca Fung '19 Haley Shea '19
College of Charleston	Cougars	Christophe Killian '18 Jack Cusick '17 Nicolas Muller '20	Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Liza Toppa '20 Chloe Dapp '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Brendan Shanahan '17 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20 Shira Golub '18 Mercedes Mcphee '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17	Elizabeth Dennison '17 Julia Monro '17 Shelby Jacobs '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Erik Weis '18 Jack Mcgraw '20 Nathaniel Johansson '18	Mia Steck '17 Mary Amis '19 Alyssa Berger '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Lyons '17	Nora Cullen '18 Isabelle Austin-Green '19 Marie Bergsund '20
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Aidan Molesky '20 Andreas Adam '18 Arthur Libby '17 John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Timothy Montera '18 Macy Blakeley '20 Skye Miller '19
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Benjamin Craig '17 Charles Hicks '20 Nate Peck '20 Vincent Yannelli '19	Emma Janson '19 Beth Carroll '20 James Mccracken '17

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 8.5 kn

Gusts to 27.0 kn

From NNE (29°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine4.5 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1022.5 hPa Rain0.19 in

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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