Dartmouth College '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.63 (fleet 3.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 30–23 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 7–5 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 11–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 12–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 30–23 against 27.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.30 | 3.25 | 7–5 | 7.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.12 | 2.98 | 11–8 | 11.5 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 2.51 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.67 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 3.56 | 10–8 | 6.6 | +0.93 | 2.3 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.9 | 3.42 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.69 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.64 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.2 | 3.67 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.3 | 3.40 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 3.63 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 4.23 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.6 | 4.25 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.1 | 4.26 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 3.79 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.6 | 3.78 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.9 | 3.75 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 3.75 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.6 | 3.74 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 3.66 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 3.18 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 2.35 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 3.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nathaniel Johansson |  Ransom Everglades School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
