Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/26/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	17–2
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	11–8
3	Eckerd College	Tritons	11–8
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–9
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	10–9
6	George Washington University	Colonials	6–13
7	Brown University	Bears	8–7
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–7
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	6–9
10	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,654 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 87 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.584 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 16% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3	9.67 school +0.16	Eddie Cox / Haley Okun 3.29 Greiner Hobbs / Christopher Manson-Hing 3.47 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc	67%	17–2 (89%)	+4.2
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	9.42	Nathaniel Johansson / Madeleine Walker 3.12 Erik Weis / Alyssa Berger 2.99 Duncan Williford / Lisa Genthner 2.86	61%	11–8 (58%)	−0.5
3	Eckerd College Tritons	6	9.21 school −0.18	Jason D'Agostino / Sarah Hanson 3.26 Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.15 Andrew Schoene / Heidi Carlson 2.93	56%	11–8 (58%)	+0.4
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	8.85	James Kennedy / Jennifer Agell 2.79 9–8 Michael Gemperline / Megan Roach 3.00 8–8 Conner Harding / Rebecca Anderson 7–3 Dirk Johnson / Rebecca Anderson 3.06 3–6 Conner Harding / Megan Roach 2–1 Conner Harding / Jennifer Agell 1–1	46%	10–9 (53%)	+1.2
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	9.93 school +0.28	William Hawk / Louisa Lindgren 2.94 Jack Mcguire / Hunter Moeller 3.58 Matthew Kaplan / Julia Rew 6–6 Matthew Lyons / Nora Cullen 2.75 4–3	73%	10–9 (53%)	−3.9
6	George Washington University Colonials	8	8.10 school −0.19	Andrew Sheerin / Shira Golub Daniel Delbello / Alexandra Delbello 2.57 Wade Wagner / Gabriella Malek 2.63 4–10 Colin Kennedy / Matthew Homa 2.64 2–3	32%	6–13 (32%)	−0.0
7	Brown University Bears	5	8.41 school +0.31	James Barry / Rachel Gutman 3.17 7–6 Sam Alexander / Nathan Housberg 2.72 7–6 Quinn Andersen / Abigayle Konys 7–6 Franco Bilik / Nathan Housberg 2.56 1–1 Sam Alexander / Abigayle Konys 2.70 1–1 Quinn Andersen / Rachel Gutman 1–1	57%	8–7 (53%)	−0.5
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2	9.06	Michael Madigan / Brittany Webb-Martin 3.27 Addison Hackstaff / Mary Robertson 3.24 Jimmy Madigan / Hannah Hughes 2.75 5–6 Tyler Fleig / Hannah Hughes 3–1	72%	8–7 (53%)	−2.8
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	9	5.88 school −0.66	Charles Lomax / Dominique Neubelt 3.05 Vincent Storino / Kelly Flynn Devin Keister / Cara Halm	16%	6–9 (40%)	+3.6
10	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	5.76 home +0.20	John Nothacker / Maura King 1.74 James Keegan / Skye Miller 1.33 0–8 Juan Lejarraga / Daseul Kim 2.00 0–8 Austin Buonsignore / James Broyles 1.90 0–7 Matthew Romanuski / Skye Miller 1.59 0–4 Juan Lejarraga / Matthew Romanuski 2.20 0–3	12%	0–15 (0%)	−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	5.88	7.78	6–9	2.4	+1.90	5.4	1%
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.67	11.19	17–2	12.8	+1.52	4.0	2%
4	Roger Williams University	8.85	9.16	10–9	8.8	+0.31	0.3	35%
3	Eckerd College	9.21	9.33	11–8	10.6	+0.12	0.0	51%
6	George Washington University	8.10	8.10	6–13	6.0	−0.00	0.0	60%
2	Dartmouth College	9.42	9.28	11–8	11.5	−0.13	0.0	70%
7	Brown University	8.41	8.18	8–7	8.5	−0.23	0.1	75%
5	Bowdoin College	9.93	8.92	10–9	13.9	−1.01	2.9	99%
8	U. S. Naval Academy	9.06	7.97	8–7	10.8	−1.09	2.2	98%
10	SUNY Maritime College	5.76	2.76	0–15	1.8	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.05	4.94	6–9	2.4	+1.90	5.4	1%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.29	4.81	17–2	12.8	+1.52	4.0	2%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.30	3.82	17–2	12.8	+1.52	4.0	2%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	2.72	3.73	10–5	6.8	+1.01	2.3	7%
James Kennedy	Roger Williams University	2.79	3.23	9–8	7.4	+0.43	0.5	28%
Michael Gemperline	Roger Williams University	3.00	3.14	8–8	7.5	+0.15	0.0	50%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.26	3.38	11–8	10.6	+0.12	0.0	51%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	3.15	3.26	11–8	10.6	+0.12	0.0	51%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.93	3.04	11–8	10.6	+0.12	0.0	51%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	2.88	2.88	6–13	6.0	−0.00	0.0	60%
Daniel Delbello	George Washington University	2.57	2.57	6–13	6.0	−0.00	0.0	60%
Colin Kennedy	George Washington University	2.64	2.10	2–3	2.3	−0.53	0.1	89%
James Barry	Brown University	3.17	2.55	7–6	8.1	−0.62	0.5	89%
Matthew Lyons	Bowdoin College	2.75	1.86	4–3	5.1	−0.89	0.7	93%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	2.94	1.93	10–9	13.9	−1.01	2.9	99%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.58	2.56	10–9	13.9	−1.01	2.9	99%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.27	2.18	8–7	10.8	−1.09	2.2	98%
Addison Hackstaff	U. S. Naval Academy	3.24	2.15	8–7	10.8	−1.09	2.2	98%
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.75	1.51	5–6	7.4	−1.24	2.2	98%
James Keegan	SUNY Maritime College	1.33	-1.67	0–8	1.5	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%
Juan Lejarraga	SUNY Maritime College	2.00	-1.00	0–11	1.6	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%
John Nothacker	SUNY Maritime College	1.74	-1.26	0–15	1.8	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%
Austin Buonsignore	SUNY Maritime College	1.90	-1.10	0–7	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Matthew Romanuski	SUNY Maritime College	1.59	-1.41	0–4	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	79%
1	2	Eckerd College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	3	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
1	4	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	75%
1	6	Eckerd College	George Washington University	77%
1	7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	57%
1	8	Brown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	94%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	61%
1	10	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	11	Eckerd College	Dartmouth College	50%	upset
1	12	George Washington University	Brown University	40%	upset
1	13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	63%
1	14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	55%
1	15	Bowdoin College	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Brown University	70%
1	17	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	40%	upset
1	18	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	92%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	20	Bowdoin College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Brown University	57%
1	22	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	23	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	24	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	George Washington University	10%	upset
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
1	26	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	27	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	31%	upset
1	28	Dartmouth College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	60%
1	30	Bowdoin College	George Washington University	85%
1	31	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	32	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Roger Williams University	5%	upset
1	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brown University	85%
1	34	George Washington University	Dartmouth College	21%	upset
1	35	Eckerd College	Bowdoin College	32%	upset
1	36	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	38	George Washington University	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
1	39	Brown University	Eckerd College	22%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	36%	upset
1	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	42	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	41%	upset
1	43	Eckerd College	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	44	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
1	45	Bowdoin College	Brown University	82%
4	49	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
4	50	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
4	54	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	97%
4	55	Brown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
4	59	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	59%
4	60	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	32%	upset
4	70	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	92%
4	71	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
4	75	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	97%
4	76	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Brown University	8%	upset
4	80	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	60%
4	81	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	67%
6	46	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	70%
6	47	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	79%
6	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	68%
6	51	George Washington University	Bowdoin College	15%	upset
6	52	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	58%
6	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	56%
6	56	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	66%
6	57	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	64%
6	58	Eckerd College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
6	61	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	67%
6	62	Eckerd College	George Washington University	74%
6	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	48%	upset
6	64	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	58%
6	65	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	22%	upset
6	66	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	84%
6	67	Eckerd College	Bowdoin College	29%	upset
6	68	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	80%
6	69	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	69%
6	72	Bowdoin College	George Washington University	85%
6	73	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	43%	upset
6	74	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	56%
6	77	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	66%
6	78	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	37%	upset
6	79	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	65%
6	82	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
6	83	Eckerd College	George Washington University	74%
6	84	Bowdoin College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	52%
6	85	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	60%
6	86	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	22%	upset
6	87	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	84%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Green	Tritons	Hawks	Bears	Colonials	Bears	Midshipmen	Mariners	Privateers
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–4	L	✕	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	6–3	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–5	L	W	W	✕	L	L	W	L	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bears	Midshipmen	Mariners	Privateers
Brown University Bears	4–2	✕	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–1	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3–3	W	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–6	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Green	Tritons	Hawks	Bears	Colonials
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–4	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	5–5	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–4	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–6	W	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–9	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
2	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
3	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
5	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
6	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
7	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
10	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
11	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
12	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
13	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
14	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
16	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
18	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
19	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
20	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
21	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
22	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
23	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
24	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
25	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
28	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
29	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
30	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
31	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
32	Mariners	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
33	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
34	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
35	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
38	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
40	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
42	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
43	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
44	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
45	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
49	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
54	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
55	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
59	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
71	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
75	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
76	Mariners	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
80	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
81	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
46	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
47	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
48	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
51	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
52	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
53	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
56	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
57	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
58	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
61	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
62	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
63	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
64	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
65	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
66	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
67	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
68	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
69	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
72	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
73	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
74	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
77	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
78	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
79	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
82	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
83	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
84	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
85	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Tritons	1-4-6
86	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
87	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Eddie Cox '16 Greiner Hobbs '18	Lindsey Kloc '19 Haley Okun '18 Christopher Manson-Hing '19
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Duncan Williford '18 Erik Weis '18 Nathaniel Johansson '18	Lisa Genthner '19 Alyssa Berger '19 Madeleine Walker '18
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16	Heidi Carlson '16 Sarah Hanson '16 Jessica Resnick '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Dirk Johnson '18 James Kennedy '17 Michael Gemperline '17	Rebecca Anderson '18 Megan Roach '18 Jennifer Agell '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Matthew Kaplan '19 Matthew Lyons '17 William Hawk '18	Hunter Moeller '17 Julia Rew '16 Nora Cullen '18 Louisa Lindgren '19
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Colin Kennedy '17 Daniel Delbello '17 Wade Wagner '19	Shira Golub '18 Matthew Homa '18 Alexandra Delbello '19 Gabriella Malek '17
Brown University	Bears	Franco Bilik '18 James Barry '16 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Nathan Housberg '19 Rachel Gutman '17 Abigayle Konys '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Addison Hackstaff '18 Jimmy Madigan '18 Michael Madigan '17 Tyler Fleig '19	Mary Robertson '17 Hannah Hughes '17 Brittany Webb-Martin '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Charles Lomax '18 Devin Keister '18 Vincent Storino '18	Dominique Neubelt '19 Cara Halm '16 Kelly Flynn '19
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Austin Buonsignore '16 James Keegan '16 John Nothacker '16 Juan Lejarraga '19 Matthew Romanuski '16	James Broyles '19 Skye Miller '19 Maura King '19 Daseul Kim '17 Matthew Romanuski '16

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1026.9 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From ENE (79°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1026.9 hPa

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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