College of Charleston '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.41 (fleet 3.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–10 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 12–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 12–10 against 8.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.72 | 3.68 | 9–5 | 6.5 | +0.96 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2017-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 3.13 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 3.71 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.7 | 2.95 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
