| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 5–5 |
| 6 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,644 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 30 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.499 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 9.37 | 11.37 | 7–2 | 4.1 | +1.99 | 4.0 | 3% |
| 6 | College of Charleston | 7.80 | 8.42 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 3 | Connecticut College | 9.84 | 9.72 | 5–4 | 5.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 11.72 | 11.43 | 8–1 | 8.2 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 8 | SUNY Maritime College | 7.48 | 6.86 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 7 | George Washington University | 8.84 | 8.11 | 3–5 | 4.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 4 | Fordham University | 9.67 | 8.58 | 3–6 | 4.7 | −1.09 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 3.69 | 5.68 | 7–2 | 4.1 | +1.99 | 4.0 | 3% |
| Austin Lettengarver | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 3.07 | 5.07 | 7–2 | 4.1 | +1.99 | 4.0 | 3% |
| Robert Porter | College of Charleston | 2.19 | 2.82 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| John Thompson | College of Charleston | 2.17 | 2.80 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Nicolas Muller | College of Charleston | 2.51 | 3.13 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Roberto Stevens | Fordham University | 2.67 | 3.04 | 2–1 | 1.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 64% |
| Walter Florio | Connecticut College | 2.77 | 2.65 | 5–4 | 5.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
| John Lawless | SUNY Maritime College | 2.48 | 1.85 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Arthur Libby | SUNY Maritime College | 1.96 | 1.33 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Aj Reiter | Georgetown University | 3.87 | 3.22 | 6–1 | 6.4 | −0.66 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Sam White | George Washington University | 2.93 | 2.20 | 3–5 | 4.1 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Will Holz | Fordham University | 3.45 | 2.36 | 3–6 | 4.7 | −1.09 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Alecsander Tayler | Fordham University | 3.50 | 2.41 | 3–6 | 4.7 | −1.09 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Bears | Camels | Rams | Seahawks | Cougars | Colonials | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 5–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–5 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | L | W | L |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Bears | Camels | Rams | Seahawks | Cougars | Colonials | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | – | – | – | – |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | – | – | – | – |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | – | – | – | – |
| Fordham University Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | – | – | – | – |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–0 | – | – | – | – | ✕ | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | ✕ | W | L |
| George Washington University Colonials | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Camels | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Camels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
