Fordham University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.63 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 1 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.85 (fleet 3.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–83 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 14–19 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 22–33 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 6–15 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (129 matches) the record is 46–83 against 53.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.38 | 2.87 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.51 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 3.85 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.09 | 4.27 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +1.19 | 0.5 | 45% |
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.94 | 1.09 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.86 | 1.1 | 99% |
| 2019-03-02 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.98 | 6–6 | 5.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.96 | 2.72 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.99 | 3.11 | 8–9 | 7.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 2.60 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 2.61 | 6–11 | 7.2 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 2.93 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.83 | 3.06 | 3–12 | 2.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2017-03-11 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 3.04 | 2–1 | 1.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 64% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 1.31 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.44 | 1.1 | 97% |
| 2016-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 1.02 | 4–16 | 9.3 | −1.56 | 5.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.2 | 4.49 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.7 | 3.85 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.3 | 4.25 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.6 | 4.70 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.4 | 4.16 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 3.50 |
| Top 9 Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.34 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 2.56 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 3.70 |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 3.63 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.96 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 3.07 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.2 | 3.55 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 4.23 |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 2.66 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.5 | 3.11 |
| MAISA Match Race Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.1 | 3.71 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.2 | 3.64 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 10.7 | 2.88 |
| MAISA North Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 3.47 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.5 | 2.45 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.26 |
| Intrepid Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.2 | 3.08 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.5 | -0.46 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.6 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 2.93 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.0 | 2.94 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.9 | 2.56 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 3.01 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 3.62 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 4.37 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 2.75 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
