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Georgetown Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 13–2
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 10–5
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 10–5
4 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9–6
5 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3–12
6 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,061 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.412 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		110.79
school +0.18		Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.61
Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.80
Bailey Carter / Anna Flaherty 3.19		86%10–2 (83%)−0.3
2U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		29.87
school +0.25		Connor Bayless / Ana Mier
Gray Benson / Kelly Milliken
Jc Hermus / Emma Remis		67%7–5 (58%)−1.1
3Old Dominion University
Monarchs		48.78
school −0.07		Jack Elkin / Abigail Tutt 3.35
Dreugh Phillips / Makalynne Dyer 3.01
Bridget Groble / Gavin Burkhart 2.47		43%7–5 (58%)+1.8
4Fordham University
Rams		39.09
school +0.18		Brad Seferian / Cortney Rielly 3.08
Tucker Hersam / Edward Harrison 2.85
Roberto Stevens / Annika Ekholm 2.92		49%6–6 (50%)+0.1
5SUNY Maritime College
Privateers		56.43John Lawless / Brian Buckley 2.44
Hunter Kahler / Skye Miller 2.06
Aidan Molesky / Christian Neuman 1.81 0–6
Aidan Molesky / John Wilcenski 1.83 0–3
Juan Lejarraga / Christian Neuman 2.31 0–3		5%0–12 (0%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Old Dominion University8.789.697–55.2+0.911.216%
4Fordham University9.099.156–65.9+0.060.060%
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges10.7910.6010–210.3−0.190.076%
2U. S. Naval Academy9.879.347–58.0−0.530.487%
5SUNY Maritime College6.433.430–120.6≤−3.000.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Roberto StevensFordham University2.922.986–65.9+0.060.060%
Charles MillerHobart and William Smith Colleges3.613.4210–210.3−0.190.076%
Bailey CarterHobart and William Smith Colleges3.192.9910–210.3−0.190.076%
Jc HermusU. S. Naval Academy3.022.497–58.0−0.530.487%
Aidan MoleskySUNY Maritime College1.81-1.190–90.3≤−3.000.5>99%
John LawlessSUNY Maritime College2.44-0.560–120.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Juan LejarragaSUNY Maritime College2.31-0.690–30.3≤−3.000.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College99%
13Old Dominion UniversityFordham University43%upset
15U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University71%
16Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College91%
17Old Dominion UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges12%upset
19Fordham UniversityU. S. Naval Academy34%upset
110Old Dominion UniversitySUNY Maritime College92%
111Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy73%
113U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College97%
115Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University85%
217Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College99%
218Old Dominion UniversityFordham University42%upset
220U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University75%
221Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College91%
222Hobart and William Smith CollegesOld Dominion University88%
224Fordham UniversityU. S. Naval Academy31%upset
225Old Dominion UniversitySUNY Maritime College92%
226U. S. Naval AcademyHobart and William Smith Colleges29%upset
228U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College97%
230Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University84%
332Hobart and William Smith CollegesSUNY Maritime College99%
333Fordham UniversityOld Dominion University58%
335Old Dominion UniversityU. S. Naval Academy24%upset
336Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College91%
337Hobart and William Smith CollegesOld Dominion University88%
339U. S. Naval AcademyFordham University70%
340Old Dominion UniversitySUNY Maritime College92%
341Hobart and William Smith CollegesU. S. Naval Academy70%
343U. S. Naval AcademySUNY Maritime College98%
345Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University84%

Round 1

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenMonarchsRamsPrivateersMariners
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4–1✕WLWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2L✕WLWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs4–1WL✕WWW
Fordham University Rams3–2LWL✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–4LLLL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenMonarchsRamsPrivateersMariners
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4–1✕LWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen4–1W✕WLWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2LL✕WWW
Fordham University Rams3–2LWL✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–4LLLL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.StatesmenMidshipmenMonarchsRamsPrivateersMariners
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen5–0✕WWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen3–2L✕LWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2LW✕LWW
Fordham University Rams3–2LLW✕WW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers1–4LLLL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
3 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
5 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
6 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
7 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
8 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
9 Fordham University Rams 1-2-6 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-5
10 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
12 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
13 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
14 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
16 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-5-6
18 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
20 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
21 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
22 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
23 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
24 Fordham University Rams 2-3-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-4-6
25 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2-4-6
26 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-5-6
27 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
28 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
29 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
30 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
31 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
32 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
33 Fordham University Rams 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
34 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
35 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-4-6
36 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
37 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
38 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
39 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
40 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-6
41 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-4-6
42 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
43 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4-5-6
44 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
45 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NW (315°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.4 hPa Snow0.03 in

What this breeze does at George Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at George Washington in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at George Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at George Washington, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →