John Jackson Memorial Team Race

HostGeorgetown
Date03/10/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	13–4
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–5
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	11–6
4	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–7
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–9
6	Cornell University	Big Red	8–9
7	Fordham University	Rams	6–11
8	University of Virginia	Wahoos	0–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,751 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 68 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.466 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	2	10.35 school +0.18	Peter Lynn / Caroline Downey 2.92 Charles Sinks / Alice Bohan 3.68 Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.53	66%	13–4 (76%)	+1.8
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.46 home +0.39	William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.48 10–5 Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.64 6–4 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 3.89 6–4 Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.68 8–1 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 3.95 6–1	86%	12–5 (71%)	−2.6
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.30 school +0.16	Peter Hogan / Kelly Milliken 3.47 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.61 Parker Loftus / Sarah Barkley 3.12 2–3 Jimmy Madigan / Sarah Barkley 2.91 4–0 Maxwell Brill / Sarah Barkley 3.05 1–2 Maxwell Brill / Kent Mathes 3.01 2–1 Parker Loftus / Kent Mathes 3.08 2–0	65%	11–6 (65%)	−0.0
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	9.67 school −0.13	Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.69 James Jacob / Emily Harrison 2.71 Jack Elkin / Bridget Groble 3.38	51%	10–7 (59%)	+1.3
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	8.51 school −0.34	Mack Fox / Christina Nothacker 3.11 Shane Riera / Brian Nelson 2.58 Austin Lettengarver / Anna Morin 3.06	38%	8–9 (47%)	+1.6
6	Cornell University Big Red	5	9.05 school +0.20	Clark Uhl / Grace Harrison 3.07 Connor Kelter / Kimberly Wong 2.89 Thomas Balk / Kate Selley 2.75	48%	8–9 (47%)	−0.1
7	Fordham University Rams	6	8.83	Roberto Stevens / Cortney Rielly 3.04 Matt Cappetta / Annika Ekholm 2.90 Tucker Hersam / Lauren Holderman 2.81	42%	6–11 (35%)	−1.2
8	University of Virginia Wahoos	8	6.03 school +0.15	Colin Suvak / Colleen Roney 2.55 0–12 Victor Layne / Connor Segal 2.33 0–12 Katarina Catallo / Hannah Lothrop 0–7 Ian Palmer / Colleen Roney 1.08 0–5 Katarina Catallo / Yash Kalburgi 0–5 Victor Layne / Yash Kalburgi 2.32 0–5 Ian Palmer / Hannah Lothrop 1.01 0–5	4%	0–17 (0%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Boston College	10.35	11.02	13–4	11.2	+0.67	0.8	22%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.51	9.09	8–9	6.4	+0.58	0.7	24%
4	Old Dominion University	9.67	10.09	10–7	8.7	+0.42	0.4	32%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.30	10.29	11–6	11.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
6	Cornell University	9.05	9.01	8–9	8.1	−0.04	0.0	64%
7	Fordham University	8.83	8.39	6–11	7.2	−0.43	0.4	84%
2	Georgetown University	11.46	10.40	12–5	14.6	−1.06	2.2	98%
8	University of Virginia	6.03	3.03	0–17	0.7	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.91	5.91	4–0	3.6	≥+3.00	0.6	67%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.53	4.20	13–4	11.2	+0.67	0.8	22%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.06	3.63	8–9	6.4	+0.58	0.7	24%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.69	4.11	10–7	8.7	+0.42	0.4	32%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.68	3.72	8–1	8.0	+0.04	0.0	73%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.61	3.60	11–6	11.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.07	3.03	8–9	8.1	−0.04	0.0	64%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	2.89	2.86	8–9	8.1	−0.04	0.0	64%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	3.05	2.77	3–3	3.4	−0.28	0.1	78%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	3.04	2.61	6–11	7.2	−0.43	0.4	84%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.48	2.31	10–5	12.7	−1.17	2.5	99%
Colin Suvak	University of Virginia	2.55	-0.45	0–12	0.6	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%
Katarina Catallo	University of Virginia	1.51	-1.49	0–12	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Ian Palmer	University of Virginia	1.08	-1.92	0–10	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Fordham University	94%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	81%
1	3	Old Dominion University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
1	4	Boston College	University of Virginia	98%
1	5	Fordham University	Cornell University	46%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	97%
1	8	Boston College	Old Dominion University	66%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Cornell University	37%	upset
1	10	Fordham University	University of Virginia	90%
1	11	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	15%	upset
1	12	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
1	13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Virginia	97%
1	14	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	34%	upset
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	82%
1	16	Boston College	Georgetown University	26%	upset
1	17	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	99%
1	18	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
1	19	Georgetown University	Cornell University	92%
1	20	Boston College	Fordham University	82%
1	21	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
1	22	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	100%
1	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	42%	upset
1	24	Boston College	Cornell University	79%
1	25	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	26	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	70%
1	27	Cornell University	University of Virginia	95%
1	28	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	14%	upset
2	29	Georgetown University	Fordham University	94%
2	30	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	21%	upset
2	31	Old Dominion University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
2	32	Boston College	University of Virginia	98%
2	33	Fordham University	Cornell University	44%	upset
2	34	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
2	35	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	97%
2	36	Old Dominion University	Boston College	33%	upset
2	37	Cornell University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
2	38	Fordham University	University of Virginia	90%
2	39	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	49%	upset
2	41	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Virginia	97%
2	42	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	36%	upset
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	82%
2	44	Boston College	Georgetown University	26%	upset
2	45	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	99%
2	46	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
2	47	Georgetown University	Cornell University	92%
2	48	Boston College	Fordham University	82%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	65%
2	50	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	100%
2	51	Fordham University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
2	52	Boston College	Cornell University	78%
2	53	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
2	54	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	69%
2	55	Cornell University	University of Virginia	95%
2	56	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
4	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	25%	upset
4	58	Boston College	Old Dominion University	67%
4	59	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	15%	upset
4	60	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
4	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	65%
4	62	Georgetown University	Boston College	74%
4	63	Cornell University	Fordham University	56%
4	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Virginia	97%
4	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Cornell University	37%	upset
4	66	Fordham University	University of Virginia	90%
4	67	Cornell University	University of Virginia	95%
4	68	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	43%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Bears	Red	Rams	Wahoos
Boston College Eagles	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Bears	Red	Rams	Wahoos
Boston College Eagles	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	L	L	W	W	W	✕	L	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Bears	Red	Rams	Wahoos
Boston College Eagles	2–1	✕	L	W	W	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	W	✕	L	L	–	–	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–1	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–2	L	W	L	✕	–	–	–	–
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
3	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
4	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
5	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
8	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
10	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
11	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
12	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
13	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
14	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
15	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
16	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
18	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
21	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
23	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
24	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
25	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
26	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
27	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
28	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
30	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
31	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
32	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
33	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
35	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
36	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
37	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
38	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Wahoos	1-4-6
39	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
40	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
41	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
42	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
43	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
44	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
51	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
52	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
54	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
55	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
58	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
59	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
60	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
61	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
62	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
63	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
65	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
66	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
67	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
68	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Peter Lynn '19 Wade Waddell '19	Alice Bohan '18 Caroline Downey '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Claire Mohun '19 Haley Shea '19 Rebecca Fung '19 Meaghan Macrae '18 Caroline Teare '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Jimmy Madigan '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Sarah Barkley '19 Kent Mathes '20 Kelly Milliken '21
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Bridget Groble '22 Emily Harrison '21 Carter Little '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Mack Fox '20 Shane Riera '21	Anna Morin '19 Christina Nothacker '21 Brian Nelson '21
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18 Thomas Balk '18	Grace Harrison '18 Kimberly Wong '19 Kate Selley '20
Fordham University	Rams	Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Annika Ekholm '20 Cortney Rielly '20 Lauren Holderman '18
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Colin Suvak '19 Ian Palmer '19 Katarina Catallo '20 Victor Layne '20	Colleen Roney '18 Hannah Lothrop '21 Yash Kalburgi '19 Connor Segal '20

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.6 kn

avg · max 7.2 kn

Gusts to 16.7 kn

From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1016.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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