University of Virginia '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–35 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–17 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 18–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 18–35 against 14.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | -0.67 | 0–17 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.35 | -0.65 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.78 | 2.77 | 4–10 | 4.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 4.73 | 14–1 | 9.7 | +2.21 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.4 | 1.91 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.2 | 2.34 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Edward Teach Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.0 | 1.53 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.9 | 3.56 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 2.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Victor Layne |  Norfolk Collegiate School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
